194
FXUS61 KALY 030739
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
339 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES HAVE ENDED DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE. ADJUSTED SKY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
MORNING BASED ON LATEST FORECAST TRENDS AND NIGHTTIME SATELLITE
IMAGERY. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LOW RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NEW YORK.
2) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TODAY IS LOOKING TO BE A DRY DAY IN STORE, BUT BREEZY WITH WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
WINDS TO THE FORECAST FROM THE DETERMINISTIC NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS DATA AS GOOD MIXING WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS CAN OCCUR DURING
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST AND EXITING THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS, WINDS DECREASE TO LESS THAN
15 MPH FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BETWEEN 25
AND 35 PERCENT. BASED ON YESTERDAY'S COLLABORATION WITH STATE
PARTNERS, A GOOD DRYING DAY IS IN STORE AND A LOW RISK FOR FIRE
SPREAD CAN EXIST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY (AS FAR
NORTH AS WASHINGTON AND WARREN COUNTIES) AND DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
TACONICS, MID-HUDSON VALLEY, AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS. SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS CONTINUE TODAY ADDRESSING THE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LOW RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD. FOR MONDAY, RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECASTED TO BE ABOVE 35%, WIND GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 20 MPH, AND MIXING WILL NOT BE AS GOOD AS TODAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OUT TO SEA. EVEN THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER ON MONDAY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES AND LATEST NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODEL DATA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR ISOLATED NON-SEVERE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO ARRIVE IN EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. PRIMARY CONCERNS
FOR ANY DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY ARE LIGHTNING, HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE'S SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH
ONSET TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY WITH FORECAST
MODEL GUIDANCES DUE TO WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS, BUT
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST
OF ALBANY.
THIS IS THE START OF OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WHERE DAILY
MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES (50-90%) FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
CAN OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY THIS WEEK. A DREARY DAY IS SUPPORTED
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN STARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY, BUT THERE IS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS WEEKEND IF WE CONTINUE A DRIER OR
WETTER PATTERN. NEVERTHELESS, CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST
THIS WEEK AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/MON...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL KEEP
SCT-BKN STRATOCU CLOUDS AROUND FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF
THE DAY SUNDAY. A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR A
BRIEF TIME SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE MORE PATCHY CLOUDS RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT, BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KT ON SUNDAY. WINDS DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY
AROUND 00Z/MON THEN SHIFT MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY
06Z/MON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...33
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