780
FXUS61 KALY 031805
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND WIND/WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS/INCREASED WIND/WIND GUSTS FOR
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO, ADDITIONAL SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD ACROSS THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST, THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
TACONICS, AS WELL AS BERKSHIRE COUNTY IN WESTERN MA AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY IN NW CT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NY, AND WILL OCCUR AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
2) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION, REACHING 25-30 MPH AT TIMES. RH
VALUES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO 30-40 PERCENT, AND AS MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY,
EVEN LOWER RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY, TACONICS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. AN SPS REMAINS FOR
THESE AREAS DUE TO ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD. SOME WIND
GUSTS COULD REACH UP TO 35 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP REACHING 25-35 MPH LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEY
AREAS, ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW RH
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE IN THESE AREAS, AND
GENERALLY 35-45% FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. ADDITIONAL SPS'S WILL
BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY, EASTERN CATSKILLS,
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS AND FOR BERKSHIRE COUNTY IN MA AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY IN CT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPS
REACHING 75-80 IN MANY VALLEY AREAS. SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, RH VALUES SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER
COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH MIN RH GENERALLY
35-50%, LOWEST WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WILL WATCH
CLOSELY IN CASE ADDITIONAL SPS'S ARE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW LATE
TUESDAY, THEN CROSS THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
FRONT, WHICH COULD ALLOW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
FORCING WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SW ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO SOME
POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND/OR SMALL SCALE MID LEVEL
WAVES THAT MAY NOT BE RESOLVED JUST YET IN THE HIGHER-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE. IF WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT, ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS
THE CAPITAL REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH EVEN BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY/SW ADIRONDACKS. 0-6 KM SHEAR
WILL BE INCREASING, GENERALLY 30-40 KT, HOWEVER MU CAPES ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. 00Z/03 LREF JOINT PROBS FOR 0-6
KM SHEAR >40 KT AND MU CAPE >1000 J/KG ARE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, ALBEIT
SMALL (5-10%), AND SEEMS TO BE DEPENDENT ON AVAILABILITY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SUFFICIENT TRIGGER AHEAD OF THE MAIN
COLD FRONT TO INITIATE CONVECTION.
BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH. LATEST TRENDS ARE A BIT QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. 13Z/03 NBM 48-HOUR PROBS
FOR >1" RAINFALL ENDING 8 AM THURSDAY ARE GREATEST ACROSS THE SW
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY (30-45%), WITH SIMILAR PROBS
ENDING 8 AM FRIDAY GREATEST ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT (30-50%). THESE OVERALL PROBS FOR >1" RAINFALL
OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD HAVE DROPPED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS CYCLES,
WHICH WERE AS HIGH AS 50-70%+, REFLECTING A SLIGHTLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS,
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THIS STILL APPEARS TO BE A LARGELY
BENEFICIAL RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH
LATEST MMEFS SUGGESTING SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES BUT NO
FLOODING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING/POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS, ESPECIALLY SHOULD MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF DOWNPOURS
OCCUR AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS WILL KEEP
SKIES OVERCAST OR BROKEN FOR MOST THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME BRIEF CLEARING CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND AFTER SUNSET (00Z-04Z)ONCE THE CURRENT
DECK MOVES OUT. MORE PATCHY CLOUDS WILL RETURN AFTER ABOUT 04Z
TOMORROW ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT. A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER COULD
ALSO OCCUR AT KGFL BETWEEN 04Z-08Z EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BUT IF
OCCURS IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT FLYING CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE
ONLY SHOWS ABOUT A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP OCCURRING SO IT WAS
MENTIONED IN A PROB30.
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH
SPEEDS 10-15 KT AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THE TROUGH EXITS, WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT THIS EVENING AROUND 00/01Z AND SHIFT
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS PICK BACK UP AT 13Z WITH SPEEDS
10-15 KT AND GUSTS 20-25 KT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34 KTS. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24/05
AVIATION...53
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