737
FXUS61 KALY 040534
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED DEWPOINTS/INCREASED WIND/WIND GUSTS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO, TODAYS'S SPS FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS HAS ENDED, BUT ANOTHER SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD ACROSS THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST, THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS, AS WELL AS BERKSHIRE
COUNTY IN WESTERN MA AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY IN NW CT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD WILL OCCUR AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
2) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RH VALUES DROPPED TO 25-30% THIS AFTERNOON ONCE WE CLEARED OUT
(AND LOCALLY LOWER ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY)> RH VALUES
REMAIN BELOW ACROSS 30% ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS OF
7:20 PM, BUT HAVE RECOVERED TO >30% ELSEWHERE AND SHOULD ONLY
KEEP INCREASING THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. WIND GUSTS ARE
ALSO BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE, AND SHOULD CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SPS THAT WAS IN EFFECT EARLIER TODAY FOR
AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED AT 7 PM.
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP REACHING 25-35 MPH LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEY
AREAS, ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW RH
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE IN THESE AREAS, AND
GENERALLY 35-45% FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. A NEW SPS WAS ISSUED
FOR AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY, EASTERN CATSKILLS, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS AND FOR
BERKSHIRE COUNTY IN MA AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY IN CT FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON PER COLLABORATION WITH STATE PARTNERS EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPS
REACHING 75-80 IN MANY VALLEY AREAS. SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, RH VALUES SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER
COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH MIN RH GENERALLY
35-50%, LOWEST WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WILL WATCH
CLOSELY IN CASE ADDITIONAL SPS'S ARE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW LATE
TUESDAY, THEN CROSS THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
FRONT, WHICH COULD ALLOW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
FORCING WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SW ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO SOME
POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND/OR SMALL SCALE MID LEVEL
WAVES THAT MAY NOT BE RESOLVED JUST YET IN THE HIGHER-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE. IF WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT, ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS
THE CAPITAL REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH EVEN BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY/SW ADIRONDACKS. 0-6 KM SHEAR
WILL BE INCREASING, GENERALLY 30-40 KT, HOWEVER MU CAPES ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. 00Z/03 LREF JOINT PROBS FOR 0-6
KM SHEAR >40 KT AND MU CAPE >1000 J/KG ARE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, ALBEIT
SMALL (5-10%), AND SEEMS TO BE DEPENDENT ON AVAILABILITY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SUFFICIENT TRIGGER AHEAD OF THE MAIN
COLD FRONT TO INITIATE CONVECTION.
BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH. LATEST TRENDS ARE A BIT QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. 13Z/03 NBM 48-HOUR PROBS
FOR >1" RAINFALL ENDING 8 AM THURSDAY ARE GREATEST ACROSS THE SW
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY (30-45%), WITH SIMILAR PROBS
ENDING 8 AM FRIDAY GREATEST ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT (30-50%). THESE OVERALL PROBS FOR >1" RAINFALL
OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD HAVE DROPPED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS CYCLES,
WHICH WERE AS HIGH AS 50-70%+, REFLECTING A SLIGHTLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS,
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THIS STILL APPEARS TO BE A LARGELY
BENEFICIAL RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH
LATEST MMEFS SUGGESTING SOME WITHIN BANK RIVER RISES BUT NO
FLOODING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING/POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS, ESPECIALLY SHOULD MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF DOWNPOURS
OCCUR AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE 6-9 KFT
AGL RANGE NORTH OF KPOU TO BEGIN THE TAF CYCLE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM FRONT. KPOU MAY HAVE A FEW-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE NEAR KGFL/KALB AND WE INCLUDED A
PROB30 FOR KGFL FOR 6SM AND CIGS AROUND 4 KFT. THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS DECREASE BETWEEN 12Z-15Z/MON WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING TONIGHT.
LLWS WAS INCLUDED AT ALL THE TAF SITES UNTIL 12Z-14Z/MON, AS
THE SFC WINDS BECOME VARIABLE AT 5 KT TO CALM THIS MORNING AND
THE 2 KFT WINDS INCREASE TO 35-40 KT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET.
THE WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER 12Z FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT
10-16 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 20-30 KT. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE
AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS DECREASE TOWARDS 00Z/TUE AT 10 KT OR
LESS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34 KTS. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24/35
AVIATION...15
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