304
FXUS61 KALY 051749
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND LOWERED DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT OBS. EXISTING RED FLAG
WARNING AND FIRE WEATHER SPSS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, JUST MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.
2) THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
3) A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. THEN, COOLER
WEATHER RETURNS LATER THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... AS OF 1:45 PM EDT...ASIDE FROM SOME SCATTERED
DAYTIME HEATING CUMULUS CLOUDS, SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
REACH WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THIS AREA. WITH SFC WINDS
FROM THE S/SE UP THE HUDSON VALLEY, DEW POINTS HERE HAVE REMAINED A
COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
MORNING, BUT AS WE CONTINUE TO MIX UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WE ARE STILL EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO DROP INTO THE 40S.
COMBINED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S, THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RH
VALUES GETTING DOWN TO AROUND OR JUST UNDER 30% IN THE HUDSON VALLEY
SOUTH OF ALBANY. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-
25 KT OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS, AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WE CONTINUE TO MIX DEEPER. EXPECTING
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME GUSTS
OF 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE.
THE COMBINATION OF WARM, DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. VEGETATION IS
CONTINUING TO GREEN UP, BUT STATE PARTNERS AT THE NYS DEC HAVE
CONFIRMED THAT THERE IS STILL ENOUGH AVAILABILITY OF FINE FUELS FOR
CONCERNS OVER ANY FIRES THAT START TO BE ABLE TO SPREAD QUICKLY.
THEREFORE, RFW REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY FDRA DOWN TO
ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. WHERE RH IS EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF
CRITICAL LEVELS (30%), SPSS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CATSKILLS AND
SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND. LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT RH VALUES SHOULD START TO RISE HERE BEFORE THEY
DO FOR AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAIN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW SHOULD PUT AN END TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SFC ANALYSIS AS OF 1:45 PM EDT SHOWS A 97 MB
OCCLUDED LOW NEAR JAMES BAY, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
BACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THERE IS A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH SEEN IN THE MSLP FIELD OVER CENTRAL NY. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD TRACK INTO OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND LOOKS
TO BE ALLOWING FOR SOME CONVECTIVE INITIATION PER LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHWESTERN ADKS.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE A FEW FACTORS AT PLAY THAT WILL LIKELY LIMIT
THE SEVERE THREAT, NAMELY RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING WITH THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH AND A LACK OF UPPER- LEVEL SUPPORT WITH WEAK
HEIGHT RISES ALOFT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THERE IS ALSO SOME MID- LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE AS SEEN ON THE
12Z KALY SOUNDING AND ON GOES 16 WV IMAGERY. WITH DEEP MIXING,
SPC MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY ONLY SHOWS ABOUT 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
FOR THE AREA IN THEIR MARGINAL RISK. NEVERTHELESS, INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MLCAPE TO INCREASE UP TO 750-1000 J/KG. THERE
IS ABUNDANT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE (40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR,
PLENTY OF THIS IN THE LOWEST 3 KM), SO IF ANY STORMS ARE ABLE TO
GET GOING THEN THEY COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD
END UP CONGEALING PRETTY QUICKLY WITH MORE CLUSTERS OR LINE
SEGMENTS WITH DEEP COLD POOLS AND FLOW ALOFT MOSTLY PARALLEL TO
THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. MAIN THREAT, NOT SURPRISINGLY, IS
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A DRY, DEEPLY MIXED BL. MARGINAL MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5 C/KM), WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 9 KFT, AND MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR MAY ALLOW FOR A SECONDARY HAIL THREAT AS WELL.
WHILE THERE IS SOME LOW- LEVEL VEERING AND CURVATURE TO THE
FORECAST HODOGRAPHS, THE TORNADO THREAT IS VERY LOW DUE TO HIGH
LCLS.
THERE IS ALSO A MORE SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ON RADAR BACK TO OUR WEST, JUST EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE LOOKS TO BE WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS
THAT DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE, BUT WE COULD STILL SEE SOME
GUSTY WINDS WITH THIS LINE AS IT MOVES EASTWARDS INTO THE MORE
DEEPLY MIXED AREA WITH DCAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 800 J/KG. THREAT
WINDOW FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS NOW THROUGH AROUND SUNSET,
AT WHICH POINT INSTABILITY DECREASES. WE WILL STILL HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.
KEY MESSAGE 3... AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS EASTWARDS TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL
LIKELY SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT, SO AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE
UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE REGION TOMORROW AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS OVER THE
REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AROUND A HALF INCH OF QPF FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST, WITH A HALF INCH UP TO AN INCH FOR
AREAS NORTH AND WEST. LOCALLY UP TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF OF
RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE ADKS. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RESULT IN
SOME WITHIN-BANK RIVER RISES, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN ANY FLOODING ISSUES. RAINFALL RATES ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO
BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ANY FLASH FLOOD ISSUES EITHER.
RAIN/SHOWERS LOOKS TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
NIGHT, ENDING BY 12Z THURSDAY. SO, EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY
THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH BROAD
UPPER TROUGHING OVERHEAD AND LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. THE LARGE-
SCALE FLOW PATTER REMAINS SIMILAR THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD MONDAY, WITH A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
NORTHEASTERN CANADA BEING BLOCKED BY DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER
GREENLAND. OUR AREA WILL BE NEAR THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH/ULL.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP US DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY, BUT THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT FROM MODEL GUIDANCE FOR AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ULL TO BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION SATURDAY. AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK FROM SHOWERS SUNDAY, ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE THURSDAY-MONDAY TIMEFRAME, EXCEPT ON SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES
MAY END UP CLOSER TO NORMAL. THE CPC IS LEANING TOWARDS CONTINUED
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR DAYS 8-14, AND IS LEANING SLIGHTLY
TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP FOR THAT SAME TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WED...VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE TAF CYCLE WITH SCT-
BKN CIRRUS AND SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE FORECAST AREA IS
IN A WARM SECTOR, AS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS THE KALB-
KGFL CORRIDOR 11Z-16Z/TUE. WE PLACED SOME VCSH GROUPS IN FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS. CIGS MAY LOWER TO 5-8 KFT AGL WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. A STRONG PREFRONTAL DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT MAY
FOCUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE TO IMPACT KALB NORTH TO KGFL LATE THIS PM INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. WE CONTINUED PROB30 GROUPS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
21Z/TUE TO 00Z/WED FOR KGFL AND 22Z/TUE TO 01Z/WED FOR KALB. WE
DID INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP FOR KPSF EARLY TONIGHT, BUT KEPT IT
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT APPROACHING KGFL
03Z-06Z/WED WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. THE CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER
TO MVFR WITH THE FRONTAL BAND OF RAINFALL APPROACHING KALB-KGFL
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.
LLWS WAS CONTINUED AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF UNTIL 14Z/TUE, AS THE SFC
WINDS ARE LIGHT AT 7 KT OR LESS AND THE 2 KFT AGL WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST REMAINING 35-40 KT. KALB WILL LIKELY
HOLD SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 KT
THIS MORNING. THE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
10-18 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 25-32 KT AT ALL THE TAF SITES IN THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE VARIABLE DIRECTION WINDS 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS 35-40 KT
NEAR KGFL/KALB. THE WINDS DECREASE SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
00Z/WED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. LLWS WILL BECOME AN ISSUE ONCE
AGAIN A KPOU/KPSF WITH THE 2 KFT AGL WINDS 40-45 KT. LLWS WAS
LEFT OUT OF KALB/KGFL WITH A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE 2 KFT AGL. THE WINDS BECOME LIGHTER AT 7 KT OR
LESS FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ208.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...15
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