984
FXUS61 KALY 051816
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
216 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND LOWERED DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT OBS. EXISTING RED FLAG
WARNING AND FIRE WEATHER SPSS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, JUST MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.
2) THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
3) A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. THEN, COOLER
WEATHER RETURNS LATER THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... AS OF 1:45 PM EDT...ASIDE FROM SOME SCATTERED
DAYTIME HEATING CUMULUS CLOUDS, SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
REACH WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THIS AREA. WITH SFC WINDS
FROM THE S/SE UP THE HUDSON VALLEY, DEW POINTS HERE HAVE REMAINED A
COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
MORNING, BUT AS WE CONTINUE TO MIX UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WE ARE STILL EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO DROP INTO THE 40S.
COMBINED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S, THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RH
VALUES GETTING DOWN TO AROUND OR JUST UNDER 30% IN THE HUDSON VALLEY
SOUTH OF ALBANY. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-
25 KT OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS, AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WE CONTINUE TO MIX DEEPER. EXPECTING
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME GUSTS
OF 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE.
THE COMBINATION OF WARM, DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. VEGETATION IS
CONTINUING TO GREEN UP, BUT STATE PARTNERS AT THE NYS DEC HAVE
CONFIRMED THAT THERE IS STILL ENOUGH AVAILABILITY OF FINE FUELS FOR
CONCERNS OVER ANY FIRES THAT START TO BE ABLE TO SPREAD QUICKLY.
THEREFORE, RFW REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY FDRA DOWN TO
ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. WHERE RH IS EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF
CRITICAL LEVELS (30%), SPSS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CATSKILLS AND
SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND. LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT RH VALUES SHOULD START TO RISE HERE BEFORE THEY
DO FOR AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAIN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW SHOULD PUT AN END TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SFC ANALYSIS AS OF 1:45 PM EDT SHOWS A 97 MB
OCCLUDED LOW NEAR JAMES BAY, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
BACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THERE IS A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH SEEN IN THE MSLP FIELD OVER CENTRAL NY. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD TRACK INTO OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND LOOKS
TO BE ALLOWING FOR SOME CONVECTIVE INITIATION PER LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHWESTERN ADKS.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE A FEW FACTORS AT PLAY THAT WILL LIKELY LIMIT
THE SEVERE THREAT, NAMELY RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING WITH THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH AND A LACK OF UPPER- LEVEL SUPPORT WITH WEAK
HEIGHT RISES ALOFT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THERE IS ALSO SOME MID- LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE AS SEEN ON THE
12Z KALY SOUNDING AND ON GOES 16 WV IMAGERY. WITH DEEP MIXING,
SPC MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY ONLY SHOWS ABOUT 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
FOR THE AREA IN THEIR MARGINAL RISK. NEVERTHELESS, INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MLCAPE TO INCREASE UP TO 750-1000 J/KG. THERE
IS ABUNDANT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE (40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR,
PLENTY OF THIS IN THE LOWEST 3 KM), SO IF ANY STORMS ARE ABLE TO
GET GOING THEN THEY COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. STORMS SHOULD
END UP CONGEALING PRETTY QUICKLY WITH MORE CLUSTERS OR LINE
SEGMENTS WITH DEEP COLD POOLS AND FLOW ALOFT MOSTLY PARALLEL TO
THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. MAIN THREAT, NOT SURPRISINGLY, IS
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A DRY, DEEPLY MIXED BL. MARGINAL MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5 C/KM), WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 9 KFT, AND MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR MAY ALLOW FOR A SECONDARY HAIL THREAT AS WELL.
WHILE THERE IS SOME LOW- LEVEL VEERING AND CURVATURE TO THE
FORECAST HODOGRAPHS, THE TORNADO THREAT IS VERY LOW DUE TO HIGH
LCLS.
THERE IS ALSO A MORE SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ON RADAR BACK TO OUR WEST, JUST EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE LOOKS TO BE WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS
THAT DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE, BUT WE COULD STILL SEE SOME
GUSTY WINDS WITH THIS LINE AS IT MOVES EASTWARDS INTO THE MORE
DEEPLY MIXED AREA WITH DCAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 800 J/KG. THREAT
WINDOW FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS NOW THROUGH AROUND SUNSET,
AT WHICH POINT INSTABILITY DECREASES. WE WILL STILL HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.
KEY MESSAGE 3... AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS EASTWARDS TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL
LIKELY SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT, SO AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE
UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE REGION TOMORROW AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS OVER THE
REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AROUND A HALF INCH OF QPF FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST, WITH A HALF INCH UP TO AN INCH FOR
AREAS NORTH AND WEST. LOCALLY UP TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF OF
RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE ADKS. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RESULT IN
SOME WITHIN-BANK RIVER RISES, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN ANY FLOODING ISSUES. RAINFALL RATES ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO
BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ANY FLASH FLOOD ISSUES EITHER.
RAIN/SHOWERS LOOKS TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
NIGHT, ENDING BY 12Z THURSDAY. SO, EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY
THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH BROAD
UPPER TROUGHING OVERHEAD AND LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. THE LARGE-
SCALE FLOW PATTER REMAINS SIMILAR THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD MONDAY, WITH A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
NORTHEASTERN CANADA BEING BLOCKED BY DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER
GREENLAND. OUR AREA WILL BE NEAR THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH/ULL.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP US DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY, BUT THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT FROM MODEL GUIDANCE FOR AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ULL TO BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION SATURDAY. AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK FROM SHOWERS SUNDAY, ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE THURSDAY-MONDAY TIMEFRAME, EXCEPT ON SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES
MAY END UP CLOSER TO NORMAL. THE CPC IS LEANING TOWARDS CONTINUED
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR DAYS 8-14, AND IS LEANING SLIGHTLY
TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP FOR THAT SAME TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THAT TIME, BEFORE STARTING TO TAPER OFF AROUND SUNSET. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING KPOU, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE GUSTY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. KGFL AND KALB MAY SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT GOING WITH A PROB30 AT KGFL AS THIS
HEAVILY DEPENDS ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN THE REGION
DURING THAT PERIOD OF TIME. LLWS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT
KPOU AND KPSF AROUND SUNSET AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH 2 KFT
AGL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CREATING 35-40 KTS OF SHEAR WHILE
SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK BACK UP AT KALB, KPOU, AND KPSF BY
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS REACHING UP TO 20-25 KTS.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE REGION.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO
MVFR/IFR STARTING AROUND 09Z, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVING
BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL SEE REDUCED VIS AND LOW CIGS DUE TO THE RAIN,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP BELOW 1000-2000 FT ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ208.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...23
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