250
FXUS61 KALY 060616
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
216 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE RAINFALL WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. ALSO
TRANSITIONED TO STRATIFORM RAINFALL DURING THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN
THE LATE PM AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING
IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND THE GLENS FALLS AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COOLER
WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES.
2) LOCALIZED AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GLENS FALLS,
SARATOGA REGION AND THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE COLD FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY OVER
EASTERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST INTO PA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS ORGANIZING
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/WESTERN PA AND WILL INCREASE THE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. PWATS INCREASE TO 1
TO 2 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST NAEFS GUIDANCE. THE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE FRONT AS THE WAVE
APPROACHES. THE FRONT MAY BACK NORTH/NORTHWEST BRIEFLY BEFORE
STARTING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAYBE
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE IS NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY (GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG OF MUCAPE OR MEAN
SBCAPE) SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BASED ON THE
LATEST HREF GUIDANCE. WE DID PLACE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TACONICS, THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY, BERKSHIRES AND NW CT IN THE MID-LATE PM INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION WILL
LIKELY BE RAIN-FREE MOST OF THE MORNING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
MOVES SOUTH AND EAST. THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BEST
CHANCE FOR 24-HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO EXCEED AN INCH WILL BE
NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION, WHERE THE PROBS >1" OF
RAINFALL ARE FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY, THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VT ARE 30-50% BY
06Z/THU. OUR FORECAST SUPPORTS A HALF AN INCH TO INCH OF RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION WITH AMOUNTS JUST UNDER A HALF INCH IN THE
SOUTHERN EXTREME AND IN EXCESS OF AN INCH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RESULT IN SOME WITHIN-BANK
RIVER/CREEK RISES, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO RESULT
IN ANY FLOODING CONCERNS.
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MID 40S
TO MID/UPPER 50S NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
WITH UPPER 50S TO MID AND UPPER 60S SOUTH AND EAST. THE
RAINFALL CLEARS OUT FAST TONIGHT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS
WITH THE PRECIPITATION ENDING OVER NW CT IN THE EARLY MORNING
(~06Z) WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S. A BROAD MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER
THE THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS TO CLOSE THE WEEK AND
ENTER THE WEEKEND. COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU
WITH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SOME 40S
OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN THU
NIGHT WITH COLD CONDITIONS BEFORE A SHORT-WAVE BRINGS SOME
ISOLD-SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A MORE
PROLIFIC SHORT-WAVE AND A WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST/OHIO
VALLEY TO OPENS THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS. A
MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED FOR MOTHERS DAY BEFORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH ANOTHER WAVE AND COLD FRONT RETURNS LATE SUN NIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR HYDRO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME, THOUGH TEMPS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME SCATTERED TO
AREAS OF FROST TO FORM, WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN IN
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY, GLENS FALLS AND SARATOGA REGION.
TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE 33-36F RANGE WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FROST MAY FORM FOR PORTIONS OF SARATOGA, SOUTHEAST
WARREN, AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES AND A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED LATER IN TIME, IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR THESE TEMPS
AND THE THREAT FOR AREAS OF FROST.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/THU...DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, STARTING BETWEEN
11-14Z/WED AT KGFL/KALB AND A FEW HOURS LATER AT KPSF/KPOU.
INITIALLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED BUT A GRADUAL LOWERING TO
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHERE
SOME POCKETS OF MORE MODERATE RAIN OCCUR, SOME IFR VSBYS COULD
OCCUR. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
21Z/WED AND 00Z/THU WITH LIKELY MIXED VFR/MVFR VSBYS BUT CIGS
MAY LOWER INTO THE IFR/LOW MVFR RANGE. SHOWERS TAPER OFF TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE, THOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR IFR
STRATUS MAY LINGER.
VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT THEN
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
20-25 KT (EXCEPT REMAINING VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KT AT KGFL).
WIND WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS WEDNESDAY SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY AFTER 00Z/THU. PERIODS
OF LLWS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT KPOU UNTIL AROUND 12Z/WED
WITH 2000 FT WINDS BETWEEN 35-40 KT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...33
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