210
FXUS61 KALY 061831
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
231 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS OF OVERCAST SKIES AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
2) PATCHY FROST COULD DEVELOP IN THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
3) UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THIS
WEEKEND WITH VERY LOW CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE LAST 12 HOURS RANGE
BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.75 BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WITH
THESE AMOUNTS HAVING ALREADY ACCUMULATED AND WITH THE FORECAST
REMAINING ON TRACK, RAINFALL TOTALS NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY
ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES. FOR
SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY, RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE BETWEEN 0.25
AND 0.75 INCHES. A GOOD SOAKING RAINFALL CONTINUES WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONS TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR TOMORROW MORNING. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A VERY LOW RISK OF ANY PONDING OR
NUISANCE STREET FLOODING TO OCCUR WITH TODAY'S RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH OUR
HIGH TEMPERATURES OF THE DAY HAVING ALREADY HAPPEN BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW'S TONIGHT REMAIN ON THE
CHILLY SIDE RANGING IN THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WITH THE COMBINATION OF COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
OVERHEAD, CLEAR SKIES, AND CALM WINDS TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR PATCHY
FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY REGION. A FEW
ISOLATED AREAS IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT COULD SEE FROST, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME ON
HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE DUE TO A LIGHT WIND BETWEEN 5 AND 10
MPH. THESE LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY STARTED THE GROWING SEASON,
BUT CONFIDENCE FOR WHERE ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD BE
ISSUED IS CONFINED TO THE LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...AFTER THE DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR AN UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR THIS WEEKEND, MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) FOR LIGHT
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 0.25 INCHES
ARE LESS THAN 30 PERCENT ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW
FOR SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY EVENING, CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASES TO MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-80%). THERE'S SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH AMOUNTS AND EXACT START TIMING AT THIS
FORECAST PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH FOR A VERY
LOW RISK OF ANY FLOODING THAT COULD OCCUR, SUCH AS PONDING ON
ROADWAYS. COOLER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES STICK AROUND FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND MID-70S. THEN WE
HEAD BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE IN THE 50S
AND 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON, ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THIS RAIN/MIST WILL MAINTAIN MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND VIS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH
KGFL AND KPSF SEEING THE LOWEST CIGS CONSISTENTLY BELOW 1000 FT.
THESE CONDITIONS MAY FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THAT TIME, SO WENT
WITH TEMPOS TO START OFF THIS TAF PERIOD TO REFLECT THAT
POSSIBILITY. A CLEARING TREND WILL START AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AS
THE RAIN MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION, WITH VIS GRADUALLY
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. LOWER CIGS WILL
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH KPOU AND KPSF EXPECTED TO FULLY CLEAR BY
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY AND SOME MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING
AT KALB AND KGFL.
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS WILL START OFF THIS TAF
PERIOD AT KALB, KPOU, AND KPSF, WITH KGFL BEING THE EXCEPTION
WITH PREVAILING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER
TOWARDS THE WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 22Z AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-25 KTS AT
KALB, KPOU, AND KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...23
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