795
FXUS61 KALY 070544
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS OF OVERCAST SKIES AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
2) PATCHY FROST COULD DEVELOP IN THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
3) UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THIS
WEEKEND WITH VERY LOW CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE LAST 12 HOURS RANGE
BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.75 BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WITH
THESE AMOUNTS HAVING ALREADY ACCUMULATED AND WITH THE FORECAST
REMAINING ON TRACK, RAINFALL TOTALS NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY
ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES. FOR
SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY, RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE BETWEEN 0.25
AND 0.75 INCHES. A GOOD SOAKING RAINFALL CONTINUES WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONS TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR TOMORROW MORNING. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A VERY LOW RISK OF ANY PONDING OR
NUISANCE STREET FLOODING TO OCCUR WITH TODAY'S RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH OUR
HIGH TEMPERATURES OF THE DAY HAVING ALREADY HAPPEN BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW'S TONIGHT REMAIN ON THE
CHILLY SIDE RANGING IN THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WITH THE COMBINATION OF COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
OVERHEAD, CLEAR SKIES, AND CALM WINDS TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR PATCHY
FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY REGION. A FEW
ISOLATED AREAS IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT COULD SEE FROST, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME ON
HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE DUE TO A LIGHT WIND BETWEEN 5 AND 10
MPH. THESE LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY STARTED THE GROWING SEASON,
BUT CONFIDENCE FOR WHERE ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD BE
ISSUED IS CONFINED TO THE LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...AFTER THE DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR AN UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR THIS WEEKEND, MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) FOR LIGHT
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 0.25 INCHES
ARE LESS THAN 30 PERCENT ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW
FOR SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY EVENING, CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASES TO MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-80%). THERE'S SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH AMOUNTS AND EXACT START TIMING AT THIS
FORECAST PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH FOR A VERY
LOW RISK OF ANY FLOODING THAT COULD OCCUR, SUCH AS PONDING ON
ROADWAYS. COOLER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES STICK AROUND FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND MID-70S. THEN WE
HEAD BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE IN THE 50S
AND 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF VFR AND IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS
IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S COLD FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART, RESIDUAL
SHOWERS FROM TODAY'S AREA OF RAIN HAVE DISSIPATED OR EXITED THE
REGION, BUT ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN
ENTERING POU ON THE KENX RADAR. THIS LAST BATCH OF SHOWERS
SHOULD ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS, PRIMARILY IMPACTING POU AND
POSSIBLY PSF BEFORE REGIONWIDE DRY CONDITIONS RETURN LATER THIS
MORNING. CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS AT POU COULD BE BROUGHT TO MVFR
FROM THESE SHOWERS, WHILE PSF WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE IFR
CATEGORY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS ARE THEN EXPECTED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION AND USHERS IN
DRIER AIR.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RETURN EVERYWHERE BY 09-11Z
AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF CYCLE.
DEEP MIXING WITHIN A MODERATELY STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO RANGE
FROM ABOUT 10-12 KT WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
NYZ041-043-083-084.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...12
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