213
FXUS61 KALY 070641
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
241 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED THIS MORNING IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY, LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE SHOWERS WERE LINGERED LONGER FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
A FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY, WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
BEGUN FOR AREAS OF FROST.
SOME CHANGES TO SKY COVER AND THE ARRIVAL TIME FOR POPS/SHOWERS WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FROST ADVISORY FOR AREAS OF FROST FOR SOUTHEAST WARREN,
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN SARATOGA COUNTIES MIDNIGHT TO 7 AM FRI.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURN FRI NIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH
VERY LOW CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG IT, BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THESE SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER DAYBREAK, PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM OH AND PA. IT WILL BE COOL ALOFT
TODAY WITH H850 TEMPS -2C TO +3C WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO LOWERS 60S
IN THE VALLEYS AND MID 40S TO MID 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH A WEST/NORTHWEST BREEZE. TONIGHT, THE SKIES WILL BEGIN
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE WINDS
TO GO LIGHT TO CALM OVER THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN FOR SOUTHEAST
WARREN, NORTHERN SARATOGA AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES, SO TEMPS OF
33-36F MAY ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST TO FORM. A FROST ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MIDNIGHT TO 7 AM FRI. A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING
THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT AND A FEW SHOWERS CLOSER TO I-84 IN THE MID HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. WE WERE LESS CONFIDENT FOR SCATTERED TO AREAS OF FROST
SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA. IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 20S IN
THE ADIRONDACK PARK AND SOUTHERN GREENS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH NO MAJOR IMPACTS FOR THE FORECAST AREA ARE NOT EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD WITH
TEMPS STILL RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE MEDIUM RANGE
AND ENSEMBLES GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE CONUS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS WARM FRONT INCREASES
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT, AS IT APPROACHES
FROM THE OH VALLEY AND PA. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES FOR
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS IN THE 60-90% RANGE FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION/SOUTHERN VT SOUTHWARD AND HIGH
CHANCES 30-50% TO THE NORTH. THE SHOWERS END SAT EVENING WITH
NBM QPF IN THE TWO TENTHS TO HALF INCH RANGE ACROSS EASTERN NY
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE PROJECTED ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. TEMPS ON
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE COOL AND DAMP IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER
50S.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS OCCURS SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT AND THEN A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL AGAIN. THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE
ENSEMBLES/ GUIDANCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT, EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF
THE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT, BUT POPS INCREASE INTO THE 55-75%
RANGE FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON FOR ANOTHER QUARTER TO HALF INCH
OF RAINFALL (OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER) BASED ON THE WPC GUIDANCE.
TEMPS ON MOTHERS DAY MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL READINGS IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S, EXCEPT 50S OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK, BUT COOL
BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME, THE
RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR TO POSE ANY RISK FOR FLOODING, BUT SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW SPOTS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF VFR AND IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS
IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S COLD FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART, RESIDUAL
SHOWERS FROM TODAY'S AREA OF RAIN HAVE DISSIPATED OR EXITED THE
REGION, BUT ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN
ENTERING POU ON THE KENX RADAR. THIS LAST BATCH OF SHOWERS
SHOULD ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS, PRIMARILY IMPACTING POU AND
POSSIBLY PSF BEFORE REGIONWIDE DRY CONDITIONS RETURN LATER THIS
MORNING. CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS AT POU COULD BE BROUGHT TO MVFR
FROM THESE SHOWERS, WHILE PSF WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE IFR
CATEGORY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS ARE THEN EXPECTED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION AND USHERS IN
DRIER AIR.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RETURN EVERYWHERE BY 09-11Z
AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF CYCLE.
DEEP MIXING WITHIN A MODERATELY STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO RANGE
FROM ABOUT 10-12 KT WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
NYZ041-043-083-084.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...12
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