541
FXUS61 KALY 081807
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
207 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AND DEWPOINTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO MATCH
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. WHILE A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, DEWPOINTS
HAVE STILL BEEN RUNNING LOWER THAN FORECASTED VALUES FROM THE
NBM. WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, BUT ALLOW FOR MORE CLEARING BY
THIS EVENING.
WITH CLEARING SKIES, SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED FOR THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY NEAR GLENS FALLS. WITH LAST NIGHT'S LOWS
FALLING CLOSE TO FREEZING, WILL EXPECT SIMILAR VALUES AGAIN
TONIGHT, SO WILL GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA.
ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT,
HAVE TRIED TO TIME PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOCALIZED AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY DUE TO LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S.
2) UNSETTLED PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
BUT NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON, THERE SHOULD BE DECENT CLEARING EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE EAST.
ONCE CLOUDS EXIT THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, LOWS LOOK TO REACH THE MID 30S
IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY NEAR GLENS FALLS, WHICH SHOULD
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST. WITH THE
GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY, SENSITIVE AND TENDER VEGETATION COULD
BE DAMAGED BY FROST AND PROTECTIVE MEASURES SHOULD BE TAKEN TO
ENSURE THE SAFETY OF THE YOUNG PLANTS. A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR WASHINGTON, SE WARREN AND NORTHERN SARATOGA COUNTIES
FOR LATE TONIGHT.
AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS, AS INSENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY
RISE TOWARDS DAYBREAK, ENDING THE THREAT FOR FROST AROUND 7 AM
OR SO.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING, AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE, AIDED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION, WILL
ALLOW FOR AN AREA OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION FOR SATURDAY MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE
CAPITAL REGION WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THIS PRECIP,
WITH LESS POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
HOWEVER, AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTH AND EAST LOOK TO
SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF STEADY LIGHT RAINFALL, WITH A TENTH TO A
QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY, WHICH PRECIP
WINDING DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIP, TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
MORE WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, WHICH WILL BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE THE ADIRONDACKS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
SAT NIGHT, THE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE STEADIEST
PRECIP MAY BE SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT, BUT IT'S
STILL UNCLEAR IF THIS STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE IN OUR JUST
SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DON'T LOOK EXCESSIVE, SO NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AND
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY IN PLACE, THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE
MUCH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME AS WELL.
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MILDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME
BREAKS OF SUN AND MOTHER'S DAY HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 60S
FOR MANY SPOTS. HOWEVER, TEMPS LOOK TO COOL DOWN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S
ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND COOL TEMPS WILL
BE IN PLACE, MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED, SO THERE PROBABLY WON'T BE
MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIP AT THIS TIME WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY IN PLACE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK, BUT SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP
LOOK TO OCCUR, WITH AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINING IN
PLACE.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOME OF
THE SITES THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WITH SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE PROBABILITY OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING THE
GROUND AT THE TERMINALS REMAINS LOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
REACHING THE GROUND IS AT KPSF WHICH IF OCCURS, COULD LOWER CIGS TO
MVFR BUT THIS PROBABILITY IS STILL LOW SO IT IS MENTIONED IN A
PROB30. KGFL WILL REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME BRIEF
CLEARING AT KGFL, KALB, AND KPSF AROUND 01Z. CLOUDS WILL THEN BEGIN
TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. THIS WILL BRING THICK STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND
MORE WIDESPREAD AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL TO THE REGION
STARTING 06Z-13Z TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. KPOU WILL HAVE CIGS AND VIS LOWERED TO MVFR FIRST AT
06Z WITH THE REST OF THE TERMINALS LOWERING TO MVFR AT OR JUST AFTER
SUNRISE (12/13Z). IFR AND LIFR IS THEN VERY LIKELY MID MORNING (14Z-
16Z) ACROSS THE REGION AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST 10-15 KT
WITH OCCASIONAL STRONGER GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. WINDS THEN DECREASE
INTO THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER 5 KT. WITH THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WINDS BEGIN TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN WITH
SUNRISE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 5-10 KT AND SHIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR NYZ041-043-083-084.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...53
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