015
FXUS61 KALY 091809
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
209 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR SUN/MON NIGHT, ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH OF
I-90 WHERE SOME AREAS OF FROST/FREEZING TEMPS MAY OCCUR. ALSO
RAISED WIND/WIND GUSTS FOR BOTH SUN AND MON AFTERNOON AS DEEP
MIXING OCCURS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PROBABILITY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH AREAS OF FROST/FREEZING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I-90.
2) ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A BRIEF RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY, BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD AIR ALOFT
DOMINATES. THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS MONDAY MORNING (MAY 11) FOR
THE NEXT LAYER OF AREAS, WITH THE GROWING SEASON THEN UNDERWAY
IN ALL AREAS OF EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OUTSIDE OF THE SW
ADIRONDACKS. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY,
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS MON AM, AND
PERHAPS EVEN A LARGER AREA (MAINLY NORTH OF I-90) TUE AM, AND
WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE ISSUANCE OF FROST ADVISORIES OR FREEZE
WARNINGS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CURRENT AREA OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH MAY TAKE
UNTIL 4-6 PM BEFORE ENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT, AS SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NJ TRACKS NORTH/NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE,
SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS INTO
THE SW ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT, BEFORE
TRACKING ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA
TOWARD OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO MID/LATE SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, OTHERWISE DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWERS CLOSE TO I-84
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ALONG THE FRONT, AS WELL AS SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS NEAR OR JUST OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.
DEPENDING ON HOW THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVOLVES, SHOWERS AND/OR
AREAS OF STEADY RAIN COULD LINGER INTO LATE WEEK. AREAS SOUTH
OF I-90 WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR STEADY RAIN
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD GIVEN THE POSSIBLE COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A VARIETY OF FLYING CONDITIONS START THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR/MVFR/IFR/LIFR THROUGH 10/06Z
BEFORE IFR CONDITIONS BECOME THE DOMINATE CONDITION. LOW CEILINGS
OCCURS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR
LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z, FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR FOR THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHEASTERLY LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH 22-02Z WITH WINDS
INCREASING THIS EVENING AND TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS. WINDS INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12/24
AVIATION...05
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