237
FXUS61 KALY 100603
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
203 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOR FOR AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF ALBANY WHERE
SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED, WHICH
COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR SUN/MON NIGHT, ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH OF
I-90 WHERE SOME AREAS OF FROST/FREEZING TEMPS MAY OCCUR. ALSO
RAISED WIND/WIND GUSTS FOR BOTH SUN AND MON AFTERNOON AS DEEP
MIXING OCCURS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PROBABILITY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH AREAS OF FROST/FREEZING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I-90.
2) ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A BRIEF RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY, BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD AIR ALOFT
DOMINATES. THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS MONDAY MORNING (MAY 11) FOR
THE NEXT LAYER OF AREAS, WITH THE GROWING SEASON THEN UNDERWAY
IN ALL AREAS OF EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OUTSIDE OF THE SW
ADIRONDACKS. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY,
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS MON AM, AND
PERHAPS EVEN A LARGER AREA (MAINLY NORTH OF I-90) TUE AM, AND
WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE ISSUANCE OF FROST ADVISORIES OR FREEZE
WARNINGS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CURRENT AREA OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH MAY TAKE
UNTIL 4-6 PM BEFORE ENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT, AS SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NJ TRACKS NORTH/NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE,
SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS INTO
THE SW ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT, BEFORE
TRACKING ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA
TOWARD OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO MID/LATE SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, OTHERWISE DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWERS CLOSE TO I-84
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ALONG THE FRONT, AS WELL AS SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS NEAR OR JUST OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.
DEPENDING ON HOW THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVOLVES, SHOWERS AND/OR
AREAS OF STEADY RAIN COULD LINGER INTO LATE WEEK. AREAS SOUTH
OF I-90 WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR STEADY RAIN
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD GIVEN THE POSSIBLE COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.
INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP AT ALB AND GFL WHERE THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR SOME BRIEF SHOWERS THROUGH 09 UTC AS A WEAKENING AREA
OF SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL NY TRACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS ARE LESS
LIKELY AT POU AND PSF WITH ALL TERMINALS TRENDING BACK TO VFR
BY 12 UTC. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM AN INCOMING COLD FRONT MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. MAINTAINED PROB30 GROUPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS TAF UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE SHOWERS WITH EVEN A
BRIEF THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AT PSF AND POU THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
ISOLATED NATURE, DID NOT INCLUDE IN THIS TAF UPDATE BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ALL TERMINALS TREND TO VFR BY 00 UTC/11
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY 5-8KTS BY 14-16 UTC.
THEN, WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT INCREASING TO 8-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT.
WINDS TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 00 UTC.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FROST.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12/24
AVIATION...31
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