726
FXUS61 KALY 101103
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
703 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A MINOR FORECAST UPDATE WAS CONDUCTED THIS MORNING IN ORDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY BEING HINTED AT IN THE LATEST HIRES
GUIDANCE. THIS COULD ULTIMATELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE POP, WEATHER,
AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNT FORECASTS WERE THEREFORE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION, LIKELY TRIGGERING
THE NEED FOR FROST ADVISORY ISSUANCE WHERE THE GROWING SEASON
HAS COMMENCED.
2) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT, OUTSIDE OF FROST POSING A RISK TO
VULNERABLE VEGETATION TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT, THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS WILL NOT FEATURE ANY IMPACTFUL WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION BEGINNING
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY. WEAK AND
RELATIVELY BROAD TROUGHING PERSISTING ALOFT WILL HELP TO
REINFORCE A COOLER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 1-1.5 STDEVS BELOW NORMAL ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST NAEFS. RECENTLY WET SOILS AND PRIME RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT, COURTESY
OF A BUILDING SURFACE HIGH, WILL DRIVE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF
WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. TONIGHT, PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY; UPPER-
HUDSON VALLEY; EASTERN CATSKILLS; NORTHERN TACONICS; AND
SOUTHERN GREENS ARE PARTICULARLY AT RISK GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION
OF LOWS IN THESE AREAS TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
HOWEVER, TOMORROW NIGHT (MONDAY NIGHT), LOWS REGIONWIDE ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL AREAS OF CONCERN FOR FROST FORMATION
INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION, MID-HUDSON VALLEY, BERKSHIRES, AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THAT SAID, IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO PROACTIVELY
TAKE PREVENTATIVE ACTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO
PROTECT VULNERABLE VEGETATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOTHER'S DAY TODAY
AS TEMPERATURES REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE FIRST TIME
IN SEVERAL DAYS. THAT SAID, THE HIGH TEMPERATURE SPREAD WILL BE
RATHER LARGE GIVEN THE SLOW PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT VALUES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND MID 60S TO LOW AND POCKETS OF
MID 70S IN THE VALLEYS. UNFORTUNATELY, TODAY WON'T BE
COMPLETELY DRY AS SAID COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL DRIVE SOME
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO IN THE LOWER MID-
HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER, THESE SHOWERS
WILL BE LIGHT AND HIGHLY SCATTERED IN NATURE GIVEN THE OVERALL
LIMITED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DRIVING THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION, SO MANY WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN FACT, ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING, WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE OF DAYS WORTH OF
PERSISTENT, LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION TOMORROW. A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION, BUT WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE PRESENT AND
THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH, THERE MAY NOT BE ANY
RAIN THAT ACTUALLY REACHES THE GROUND.
THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS
PERIODICALLY AFTER TUESDAY, HOWEVER. ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH AND
WEAK ATTENDANT RIDGE ALOFT DEPART OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT,
LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING BECOMES DOMINANT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GRADUAL DEEPENING AND
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN AN EASTWARD-
TRACKING SURFACE LOW THAT WILL EJECT OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
APPROACH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS LOW THEN LOOKS TO BE THE SOURCE OF PERIODS OF RAIN FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THAT SAID, DESPITE THE POTENTIAL PROLONGED
PERIODS OF STEADY RAIN, QPF LOOKS TO BE LOW ENOUGH (0.5-1.5"
ACCORDING TO MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE) AS TO NOT POSE ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS. AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOOKING TO BUILD IN ONCE AGAIN
TO START THE NEXT WEEKEND, WE CAN CONFIDENTLY SAY AT THIS TIME
THAT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THIS COMING
WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...WE START THE DAY WITH IFR CIGS AT ALB,
PSF, AND GFL AND IFR VIS AT POU BUT SHOULD TREND TOWARDS VFR AT
GFL AND ALB AND MVFR AT PSF AND POU WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE MORE STUBBORN BY 14 UTC. THE TRUE COLD FRONT AND AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON FIRST REACHING GFL AND ALB 16 TO 19 UTC
BEFORE REACHING PSF AND POU 18 TO 22 UTC. MVFR VIS/CIGS
POSSIBLE DURING ANY SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE HAS LOWERED FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORM GIVEN LINGERING CLOUDS. ALL TERMINALS TREND TO VFR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-9KTS THIS MORNING SHIFT TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INCREASING TO
8-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. WINDS TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
00 UTC.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FROST.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12/24
AVIATION...31
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