194
FXUS61 KALY 101756
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
156 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NE PA CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHEAST. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY DRY FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT HAS TRACKED SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
FROST ADVISORIES NOW IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY, NORTHEAST CATSKILLS AND HELDERBERGS, LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION, SOUTHERN VT AND RENSSELAER PLATEAU WHERE TEMPS
SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT AHEAD OF
INCOMING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THEN TAPER OFF
TONIGHT.
2) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH AREAS OF FROST (INCLUDING FROST ADVISORY
ISSUANCES) EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 TONIGHT, WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD FROST AND/OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
3) UNSETTLED CONDITIONS DEVELOP FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD,
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SE VT INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NE CATSKILLS AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE DEPICTING AGITATED CU FIELD DEVELOPING NEAR
THE BOUNDARY, ALONG WITH CLUSTER OF SHOWERS ACROSS NE PA
TRACKING EAST/NORTHEAST. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTING SB CAPES OF 250-500 J/KG
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH GREATEST VALUES ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM.
SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT, PERHAPS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AS WAVE ALONG
FRONT SLOWLY DEPARTS. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST, THREAT FOR SHOWERS
HAS ENDED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
COOLER AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM NW TO SE
OVERNIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GROWING SEASON WILL BE
UNDERWAY BY MONDAY MORNING FOR ALL OF EASTERN NY EXCEPT FOR THE
SW ADIRONDACKS, AS WELL AS ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY, NE CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE COUNTY, LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND EASTERN RENSSELAER COUNTY AND MOST OF
SOUTHER VT TONIGHT, WHERE FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. A
FEW SHELTERED LOCATIONS WITHIN THESE AREAS COULD DROP TO AROUND
OR JUST UNDER FREEZING. EVEN COLDER MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER TO THE
REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST ADVISORIES AND/OR SOME FREEZE
WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS LOW TEMPS DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
OTHER THAN A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND AMPLIFIES, LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALONG NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST, THEN DEPENDING
ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVOLVES, COULD ALLOW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO TRANSFORM INTO AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD OCCUR, ESPECIALLY IF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWS
DOWN AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST BEFORE EVENTUALLY PIVOTING FARTHER
OFFSHORE.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES
OF OCCURRING AT KPSF AND KPOU THROUGH 21Z SO INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY AT KPSF AND KALB WITH
GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 13 AND 18 KNOTS AND SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 10
AND 15 KNOTS. BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z, WINDS DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KNOTS AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR
KGFL AND KPOU, WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BETWEEN 22Z AND
00Z.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FROST.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
NYZ038>041-043-047-048-051-054-082>084.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...12/24
AVIATION...05
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