217
FXUS61 KALY 110600
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
200 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST ADVISORIES NOW IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY, NORTHEAST CATSKILLS AND HELDERBERGS, LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION, SOUTHERN VT AND RENSSELAER PLATEAU WHERE TEMPS
SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH AREAS OF FROST (INCLUDING FROST ADVISORY
ISSUANCES) EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 TONIGHT, WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD FROST AND/OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
2) UNSETTLED CONDITIONS DEVELOP FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD, WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COOLER AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM NW TO SE
OVERNIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GROWING SEASON WILL BE
UNDERWAY BY MONDAY MORNING FOR ALL OF EASTERN NY EXCEPT FOR THE
SW ADIRONDACKS, AS WELL AS ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY, NE CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE COUNTY, LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND EASTERN RENSSELAER COUNTY AND MOST OF
SOUTHER VT TONIGHT, WHERE FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. A
FEW SHELTERED LOCATIONS WITHIN THESE AREAS COULD DROP TO AROUND
OR JUST UNDER FREEZING. EVEN COLDER MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER TO THE
REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST ADVISORIES AND/OR SOME FREEZE
WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS LOW TEMPS DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
OTHER THAN A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND AMPLIFIES, LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALONG NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST, THEN DEPENDING
ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVOLVES, COULD ALLOW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO TRANSFORM INTO AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD OCCUR, ESPECIALLY IF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWS
DOWN AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST BEFORE EVENTUALLY PIVOTING FARTHER
OFFSHORE.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BROKEN AND OVERCAST MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FILTERING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A BRIEF
BREAK AND EVEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TOWARDS SUNRISE AT ALL BUT KPOU WHICH WILL LIKELY HAVE LINGERING
THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH TOMORROW. AFTER A MOSTLY CLEAR
START TODAY, DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND
5,000 FT TO 7,000 FT BY 17Z. WINDS HOLD MAINLY NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS TONIGHT 5 KT OR LESS BEFORE
PICKING BACK UP BY MORNING (13Z-15Z) WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KT AND
BECOMING GUSTY UP TO 25 KT BY AFTERNOON (17Z- 18Z). WINDS THEN
DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AGAIN WITH SPEEDS 4-6 KT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. DEFINITE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ038>041-043-
047-048-051-054-082>084.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...53
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