331
FXUS61 KALY 120604
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
204 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UPWARDS A FEW DEGREES THROUGH 8AM THIS
MORNING BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND CLOUD COVERAGE. CURRENT
FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT BUT DEPENDING
ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES FALL ONCE SKIES CLEAR DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS, MAY NEED TO CANCEL SOME ZONES EARLY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND HILL TOWNS (OUTSIDE
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS) OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. SUCH CONDITIONS WHICH MAY
IMPACT SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
2) INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY; HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING REMAINS LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING FROM EASTERN NY INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH LINGERING STRATUS CLOUDS STILL TRACKING
THROUGH MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF 1230AM.
BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND LINGERING LIGHT BREEZE, TEMPERATURES
REMAIN RATHER MILD IN THE 40S EXCEPT IN THE SW ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WHICH IS COOLER IN THE 30S. WE STILL
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT AND WINDS TO WEAKEN NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER
2 AM THANKS TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
TROUGH. HOWEVER, GIVEN WE WILL ONLY HAVE A LIMITED WINDOW WHERE
TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING BEFORE THE SUN
RISES, CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED THAT ALL ZONES IN FROST
ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS WILL VERIFY. IF TRENDS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT SUPPORT SUCH CONDITIONS, WE MAY NEED TO
CANCEL SOME ZONES EARLY (ESPECIALLY THE CT RIVER VALLEY IN
SOUTHERN VT WHICH IS STILL IN THE MID-40S). HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR FREEZE/FROST CONDITIONS REMAINS IN AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR EARLIEST
SUPPORTING RADIATIONAL COOLING. IMPACTS TO SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
VEGETATION CONTINUE WHERE FROST AND/OR FREEZE CONDITIONS OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY TODAY, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND SLOWLY PUSHES
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ALLOWS SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD INTO
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS IS TYPICALLY WITH
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS IN WARM
AIR ADVECTION REGIMES, THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS FOCUSED MAINLY
FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90 AND IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS WITH
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENTS ALONG THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
CATSKILLS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY NOT BE A COMPLETE
WASHOUT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE PERIODS
OF WET WEATHER THAN DRY TIME, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS. THEN, A STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF A
PARENT TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND HELP STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. THERE IS INCREASING
CONSENSUS AMONG THE GUIDANCE THAT THE SOUTHERLY JET WILL
ENHANCE THE WARM AIR AND MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INTO EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW AND
MID- LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUPPORTING A FOCUS CORRIDOR OF STEADY
RAINFALL. LATEST TRENDS TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THIS STEADY RAINFALL
AXIS MAY REMAIN FOCUSED MAINLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER WITH
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN IT IMPACTING OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AREAS.
EVEN STILL, LATEST MOISTURE ANOMALIES PER THE NAEFS, GEFS AND
ENS REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST WITH PWAT AMOUNTS BARELY AROUND 1"
OVER OUR AREA AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS UNDER 10KFT. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS HELP DECREASE CONCERNS FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING. EVEN
STILL, THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL HELP LEAD TO SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH ANY CONVECTION
SUPPORTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TAKES
ON A NEGATIVE TILT LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE INCOMING
COLD FRONT. THERE REMAIN SOME DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE GUIDANCE
WHEN AND WHERE THE SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH
INTENSIFIES ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE
TRACK OF THIS SECONDARY LOW. SHOULD THE SHORTWAVE END UP BEING
STRONGER AND TAKE ON AN NEGATIVE TILT, THE SECONDARY LOW WOULD
DEVELOP EARLIER AND HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF IMPACTING EASTERN
NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. IF IT ENDS UP BEING WEAKER
(WHICH IS THE GENERAL TREND), THE LOW WOULD LIKELY ESCAPE TO OUR
EAST IMPACTING MORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EVEN IF THE SECONDARY LOW
ESCAPES INTO NEW ENGLAND, GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE
PARENT TROUGH CLOSES OFF JUST TO OUR WEST. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON ITS EASTERN FLANK WOULD LIKELY MAINTAIN
PERIODS OF STEADY RAIN OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THURSDAY. AS THE PARENT TROUGH BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED BY THURSDAY NIGHT, IT LIKELY SLOWS DOWN WITH
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
INTO FRIDAY.
WITH POTENTIALLY THREE DAYS OF WET WEATHER, PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AT LEAST 0.75" OF RAIN
REGIONWIDE OVER THE 72HR PERIOD 8AM WED TO 8AM SAT WITH MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN FOR AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. 75TH
PERCENTILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS WINDOW PROVIDE A
REASONABLE HIGH END AMOUNT AND WITH AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER ONLY RANGING 1.75" TO 2.25", THAT SUGGESTS THAT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED FLOODING
RESULTING IN POOR DRAINAGE OR URBANIZED FLOODING IS STILL
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WHERE THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AXIS CAN PERSIST/PIVOT ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/TUES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME CLOUDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON LINGERING BUT WILL DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR THE
REGION BY 07/08Z THROUGH AROUND NOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
BEGIN TO MOVE BACK IN BY AFTERNOON BECOMING BROKEN OR OVERCAST
AFTER SUNSET. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT
THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE INCREASING TO 5-10 KT FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB
AND KPSF IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN TAPER OFF INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ039>041-043-
048-051-054-061-082>084.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ038-047-058-
063.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ015.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...24/15
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