199
FXUS61 KALY 121101
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND HILL TOWNS (OUTSIDE
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS) OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. SUCH CONDITIONS WHICH MAY
IMPACT SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
2) INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS POTENTIALLY
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN RESULT IN
POOR DRAINAGE AND URBANIZED FLOODING, WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING FROM EASTERN NY INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH LINGERING STRATUS CLOUDS STILL TRACKING
THROUGH MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF 1230AM.
BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND LINGERING LIGHT BREEZE, TEMPERATURES
REMAIN RATHER MILD IN THE 40S EXCEPT IN THE SW ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WHICH IS COOLER IN THE 30S. WE STILL
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT AND WINDS TO WEAKEN NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER
2 AM THANKS TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
TROUGH. HOWEVER, GIVEN WE WILL ONLY HAVE A LIMITED WINDOW WHERE
TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING BEFORE THE SUN
RISES, CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED THAT ALL ZONES IN FROST
ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS WILL VERIFY. IF TRENDS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT SUPPORT SUCH CONDITIONS, WE MAY NEED TO
CANCEL SOME ZONES EARLY (ESPECIALLY THE CT RIVER VALLEY IN
SOUTHERN VT WHICH IS STILL IN THE MID-40S). HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR FREEZE/FROST CONDITIONS REMAINS IN AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR EARLIEST
SUPPORTING RADIATIONAL COOLING. IMPACTS TO SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
VEGETATION CONTINUE WHERE FROST AND/OR FREEZE CONDITIONS OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY TODAY, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE IN PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ALLOWS
SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS IS TYPICAL WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIMES, THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS
FOCUSED ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-90 AND IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS
WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENTS ALONG THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
CATSKILLS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHTER RAINFALL IN THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY NOT BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT,
THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER THAN DRY TIME,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS.
THEN, A STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF A PARENT TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL FORCING
AND HELP STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS ELICITING A MOISTURE FLUX
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST WED NIGHT. WITH A
GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE PARENT TROUGH CLOSES OFF JUST TO OUR
WEST, THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT LOW AND MID-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON ITS EASTERN FLANK WILL SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF
STEADY/MODERATE RAINFALL INTO THURSDAY. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST
THAT THE RAINFALL AXIS MAY SET-UP MAINLY ALONG OR JUST EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. EVEN STILL, THE
HIGHEST MOISTURE ANOMALIES PER THE NAEFS, GEFS AND ENS REMAIN
WELL TO OUR EAST WITH PWAT AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA ONLY AROUND 1"
AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS UNDER 10KFT. ALL OF THESE FACTORS HELP
DECREASE CONCERNS FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING. HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH STEEPER LAPSES RATES UNDER THE CLOSED
LOW WILL LIKELY SUPPORT WEAK INSTABILITY WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. ANY CONVECTION CAN RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND IF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN CAN PIVOT OR PERSIST, LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE OR URBAN AREAS CAN OCCUR. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS
INTO THURS, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. THERE REMAIN SOME
DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE GUIDANCE WHEN AND WHERE THIS SHORTWAVE
INTENSIFIES WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE TRACK OF THE SECONDARY
LOW. SHOULD THE SHORTWAVE END UP BEING STRONGER AND TAKE ON AN
NEGATIVE TILT, THE SECONDARY LOW WOULD DEVELOP EARLIER AND HAVE
A HIGHER CHANCE OF IMPACTING EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. IF IT ENDS UP BEING WEAKER (WHICH IS THE GENERAL
TREND), THE LOW WOULD LIKELY ESCAPE TO OUR EAST. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE PARENT TROUGH BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED AND SLOWS DOWN WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY.
WITH POTENTIALLY THREE DAYS OF WET WEATHER, PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AT LEAST 0.75" OF RAIN
REGIONWIDE OVER THE 72HR PERIOD 8AM WED TO 8AM SAT WITH MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN FOR AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. 75TH
PERCENTILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS WINDOW PROVIDE A
REASONABLE HIGH END AMOUNT AND WITH AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER ONLY RANGING 1.75" TO 2.25", THAT SUGGESTS THAT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER, AS STATED EARLIER, POOR
DRAINAGE OR URBANIZED FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
WHERE THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AXIS CAN PERSIST/PIVOT
ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
12Z/TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
BEGIN TO MOVE BACK IN BY LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 5,000 FT AFTER SUNSET BECOMING OVERCAST BY ABOUT 02Z-
04Z. RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING FROM THE NORTHWEST ARRIVE EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING BY 08-10Z AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WITH THE STEADIEST
SHOWERS NORTH OF KALB. WHILE CEILINGS DO LOWER WITH THE SHOWERS,
MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME SUGGESTS THAT KALB, KPSF, AND KPOU
SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD
HOWEVER KGFL HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE TO SEE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 10Z DUE TO UPSLOPING.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH THIS MORNING
BEFORE INCREASING TO 5-10 KT FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND NOON. A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 15 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPSF IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS THEN TAPER OFF INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND BECOME CALM
OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH SPEEDS 3-6
KT TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ039>041-043-
048-051-054-061-082>084.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ038-047-058-
063.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ015.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...53
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