299
FXUS61 KALY 121743
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
143 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS DUE TO DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS AND DECENT MIXING.
WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM, HAVE INCREASED WIND/WIND GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH-SOUTH VALLEYS, WHERE
SOME GUSTS WILL REACH UP TO 25 MPH.
WITH RAINFALL BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, HAVE INCLUDED WPC
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION PRECIP FOR
RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS IT SEEMED MORE REASONABLE THAN
NBM AMOUNTS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR WED-FRI WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 1" TO 2" RANGE, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE BEST AXIS OF RAINFALL SETS UP
ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
SOME PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED ON ROADWAYS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
IMPACTFUL HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
2) A NOTICEABLE WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, AS BOTH AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACT THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING, CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM'S WARM FRONT STARTS APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAINFALL TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL SEE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT. HAVE GONE
WITH WPC AMOUNTS SINCE THE NBM SEEMED A LITTLE TOO LIGHT, BUT
MOST AREAS WILL SEE ABOUT A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, WITH A TENTH OF LESS FROM ABOUT THE
CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTHWARD.
THERE PROBABLY WILL BE A BREAK IN THE STEADY PRECIP FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED, SO NO STRONG STORMS
ARE EXPECTED, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A RUMBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
WESTERN AREAS. THESE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE STORM'S OCCLUDED FRONT, WHICH WILL BE
TAKING ITS TIME MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES EASTWARD, ANOTHER WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STORM'S TRIPLE POINT
FOR THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD RE-DEVELOP STEADY PRECIP AND EXPAND
IT BACK INTO THE AREA. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
EXACTLY WHERE THIS AXIS OF SHOWERS SETS UP, ALTHOUGH EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA SEEM MORE FAVORED FOR THIS TO OCCUR. IT'S
POSSIBLE THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS IS EVEN EAST OF THE AREA
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, BUT IT ALL WILL DEPEND ON JUST FAR EAST THE
OCCLUDED FRONT GETS BEFORE IT STALLS AND WHERE THE SECONDARY
WAVE MOVES. EITHER WAY, A CONTINUED DAMP AND UNSETTLED DAY IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY, WITH MORE RAIN AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY COOL IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S WITH THE
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND CLOUD COVER.
WITH THE LARGE AND CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD, SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH
THEY SHOULD BE STARTING TO WIND DOWN ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY
WESTERN AREAS. SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE FINALLY EXPECTED BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY AREAS, AND TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE MILDER AS WELL.
OVERALL, MOST AREAS WILL SEE 1" TO 2" OF RAINFALL IN TOTAL FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 2"+ CAN'T BE
RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN AREAS, IF PERIODS OF RAINFALL
TRAIN OVER THE AREA WITH THE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING. NBM SHOWS
A HIGH PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 1" FOR WED THROUGH FRI ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF 2" IS UNDER 20% FOR MOST AREAS,
ALTHOUGH THE SARATOGA AND CAPITAL REGIONS AND SOUTHERN VT ARE IN
THE 20-40% RANGE. HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY FOR 3" IS UNDER 5%
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
DESPITE THIS RAINFALL, RAINFALL RATES DON'T APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH
TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS, AS DEWPOINTS AND PWATS DON'T APPEAR
TO GET TOO HIGH. WPC DOESN'T HAVE OUR AREA OUTLOOKED AT ALL FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. IN ADDITION, RIVER LEVELS ARE FAIRLY LOW
AND MMEFS DOESN'T SUGGEST ANY RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME,
ESPECIALLY WITH GREENUP WELL UNDERWAY. OVERALL, THE ONLY HYDRO
IMPACTS WILL BE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR IN URBAN AREAS
AND NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ONCE THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW GETS THROUGH THE REGION, BUILDING
HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH MILDER
TEMPERATURES STARTING THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR
VALLEY AREAS THIS WEEKEND. CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THERE
QUESTION IF SOME OF THE NBM TEMPS ARE A LITTLE OVERDONE, THERE
IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF TEMPS BEING ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S OR INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOR VALLEY AREAS. THIS WILL BE A NOTICEABLE CHANGE FOR THE
RECENT COOL WEATHER AND THERE WON'T BE ANY MORE THREATS FOR
FROST/FREEZE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMEST JUST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT FOR TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, SO THE EXACT EXTENT OF THE
WARMING WILL COME INTO BETTER FOCUS AS IT GETS CLOSER.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU PRIOR TO 06Z-09Z/WED. SOME SCT-BKN FAIR WEATHER
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL
RANGE, BUT DIMINISH PRIOR TO 00Z/WED, BUT THEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL QUICKLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER BETWEEN 06Z-09Z/WED WITH SOME SHOWERS OR LIGHT
RAIN GETTING CLOSE TO THE TAF SITES. PROB30 GROUPS WERE USED TO
BRING IN THE RAINFALL WITH SOME HIGH END MVFR CONDITONS. THE RAIN
WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS, EXCEPT NEAR
KPOU WHERE THIS MAY END 12Z-14Z/WED...AND TOWARD 17Z/WED FOR
KPSF/KALB. WE WERE NOT CONFIDENT FOR IFR CIGS YET FOR THESE TAF
SITES. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR FOR KPOU AFTER 13Z/WED
WITH BASES AROUND 5 KFT AGL WITH MVFR CIGS AT KALB-KPSF 1.5-3 KFT
AGL. THE LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER PAST 17Z/WED FOR KGFL.
THE WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWEST TO WEST AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL. THE WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION TO CALM AFTER 00Z/WED. THE WINDS
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST 5-10 KT AFTER 12Z/WED WITH SOME
GUSTS 20-25 KT AT KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE MORNING. LLWS MAY NEED TO
BE ADDED TO A FEW OF THE TAF SITES (I.E KGFL)FOR THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH LATER TAF ISSUANCES, AS THE 2 KFT AGL WINDS
INCREASE 30-35 KT AND THE SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...15
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