540
FXUS61 KALY 131115
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
715 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO
INCREASE, WITH HIGHS WELL INTO 80S NOW FOR MANY VALLEY AREAS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND POSSIBLY NEAR 90 ON TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER IN STORE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE PONDING OF WATER
IS EXPECTED ON ROADWAYS, THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
2) A NOTICEABLE WARMUP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS WEEKEND WITH A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH/WEST WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
INTO THIS MORNING. HIGHEST PROBS FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL ARE
FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH. AS THE WARM FRONT
ADVANCES NORTHWARD, THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN LATER THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH/EAST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN THE PSEUDO WARM SECTOR, WITH
OCCASIONAL 20-30 MPH GUSTS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM INTO THE
60S FROM AROUND I-90 SOUTH, WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY RESULTING IN HIGHS NEAR 70F THERE. FARTHER
NORTH IT WILL BE COOLER MAINLY IN THE 50S. SHOWERS WILL RE-
DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY
EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG SBCAPE MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF ALBANY SO WILL
MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
LIMIT SEVERE THREAT, ALTHOUGH BRIEF DOWNPOURS/GUSTY WINDS COULD
OCCUR IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING.
AS THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT, IT WILL
STALL AND BECOME OCCLUDED AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEEPENS JUST TO
OUR WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NY/PA ON THU, WITH A COASTAL SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
SHOWERS PIVOTING INTO OUR AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS
TO WHERE THE AXIS OF STEADIEST RAINFALL SETS UP, BUT MOST
GUIDANCE FAVORS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
COOL/CLOUDY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THU P.M. A
FEW EMBEDDED T-STORMS MAY OCCUR DUE TO SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. THE UPPER LOW AND COASTAL WAVE ONLY SLOWLY TRACK
EASTWARD THU NIGHT, SO WILL MAINTAIN 60-80 POPS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THU NIGHT STILL EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 0.75"-1.25", WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY NORTH/EAST. PROBABILITIES FOR > 2.00" OF RAIN ARE
GENERALLY 10-20% FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT 20-30% IN WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DRAWN OUT OVER 2 DAYS ALONG WITH MANAGEABLE RAINFALL
RATES. TYPICAL PONDING COULD OCCUR ON ROADS/LOW LYING AREAS.
THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FINALLY SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST ON FRI,
BUT WE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH, SO
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE BY SAT, A WARMER AIR MASS
WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY FLIP
FROM BELOW NORMAL INTO FRIDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY WARM
EACH DAY FROM SAT THROUGH TUE, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY PEAKING ON TUE (850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF +1
TO +3 FORECAST FROM THE NAEFS). TEMPERATURES FROM THE NBM HAVE
WARMED EVEN MORE COMPARED TO PRIOR FORECASTS, WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S ESPECIALLY MON AND TUE, WITH SOME LOWER ELEVATION
AREAS AROUND 90F TUE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THESE VALUES ARE
LOW THOUGH, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THIS IS 6-7 DAYS OUT STILL. CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ALSO INCREASE ON TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT,
WHICH DEPENDING ON TIMING COULD RESULT IN HIGHS NOT QUITE AS
WARM AS NBM IS INDICATING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z/THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD THIS MORNING AS HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY LOWER
AS THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHES. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OR BEGIN IF NOT ALREADY BEGUN
THIS MORNING AND OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT FIRST BUT WILL THEN BEGIN
TO LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 13Z ACROSS ALL TERMINALS ALONG WITH
VISIBILITIES DROPPING SOON AFTER AS WELL. PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM 13Z-17Z, ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND KPSF. A BREAK
IN THE SHOWERS IS THEN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FIRST AT KPOU AFTER
ABOUT 14Z AND THE REST OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z AS RAIN LIFTS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION OFFERING A PERIOD OF IMPROVEMENT.
HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT REACHING THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 01Z-03Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED BECOMING IFR ACROSS THE REGION AS RAIN
BECOMES STEADY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CURRENT WINDS ARE LIGHT AND/OR CALM BEFORE BECOMING 5-10 KT OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST BY MID MORNING. AFTER NOON, WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF BEFORE
TAPERING OFF INTO THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AS WINDS AROUND 2,000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 30-40 KT WHILE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 10 KT
FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...53
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