635
FXUS61 KALY 132328
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
728 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES HAVE LOWERED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED FOR TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW AS FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS AT LEAST 1 INCH IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER IN STORE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE PONDING OF WATER
IS EXPECTED ON ROADWAYS, THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
2) A NOTICEABLE WARMUP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS WEEKEND WITH A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTERNOON UPDATE: HOURLY TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EARLY EVENING HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
SLIGHTLY INCREASE TO RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING FOR
THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK
THROUGH TOMORROW, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: SHOWERS WILL RE- DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY EXPECTED IN THE WARM
SECTOR, WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SBCAPE
MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF ALBANY SO WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THERE. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
THREAT, ALTHOUGH BRIEF DOWNPOURS/GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR IN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING.
AS THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT, IT WILL
STALL AND BECOME OCCLUDED AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEEPENS JUST TO
OUR WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NY/PA ON THU, WITH A COASTAL SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
SHOWERS PIVOTING INTO OUR AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS
TO WHERE THE AXIS OF STEADIEST RAINFALL SETS UP, BUT MOST
GUIDANCE FAVORS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
COOL/CLOUDY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THU P.M. A
FEW EMBEDDED T-STORMS MAY OCCUR DUE TO SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. THE UPPER LOW AND COASTAL WAVE ONLY SLOWLY TRACK
EASTWARD THU NIGHT, SO WILL MAINTAIN 60-80 POPS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THU NIGHT STILL EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 0.75"-1.25", WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY NORTH/EAST. PROBABILITIES FOR > 2.00" OF RAIN ARE
GENERALLY 10-20% FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT 20-30% IN WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DRAWN OUT OVER 2 DAYS ALONG WITH MANAGEABLE RAINFALL
RATES. TYPICAL PONDING COULD OCCUR ON ROADS/LOW LYING AREAS.
THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FINALLY SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST ON FRI,
BUT WE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH, SO
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE HORIZON ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUR
DAYS OF DREARY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHIFT TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND DRIER FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
WE HAVE A GRADUAL WARM UP SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, TUESDAY IS
SUPPORTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK BY LATEST ENSEMBLE
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES. PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR
TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 80 DEGREES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL
GUIDANCES, WE SHOULD SEE LOTS OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SO HOW WARM WE
GET ON TUESDAY WILL GREATLY VARY, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST
PROBABILITIES RANGING THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID-80S TO
MID-90S. WHILE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM WE GET ON
TUESDAY, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AT LEAST MINOR HEATRISK IMPACTS.
THIS PRIMARILY AFFECTS THOSE WHO ARE EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO THE
HEAT AND WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION. AS WE SHIFT GEARS TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES, IT'S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER TO HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS
TO STAY COOL, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS WHEN WORKING OUTDOORS, AND
STAY HYDRATED. KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS ON THE WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. THE SHOWERS SHOULD TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF STEADY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON,
WITH A FEW BURSTS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY AT KPSF. THE RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO
DRIZZLE TOWARD SUNSET AT KPOU. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY
BE MAINLY VFR THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY. A FEW POCKETS OF LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS THURSDAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KT THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT, THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS WINDS AROUND
2000 FT AGL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT 30-40 KT, WHILE SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10 KT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07/05
AVIATION...24
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