840
FXUS61 KALY 140654
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
254 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES HAVE LOWERED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED FOR TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW AS FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS AT LEAST 1 INCH IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS. WHILE PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED ON
ROADWAYS, THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
2) A NOTICEABLE WARMUP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS WEEKEND WITH A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE AREA INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AN OCCLUDED FRONT. THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS SHOULD THEN SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS AS THE FRONT
STALLS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL THEN PIVOT BACK TO THE NW AND EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
CORE OF THE UPPER LOW BECOMES CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NY/NE PA AND
UPPER DIFFLUENCE INCREASES. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT FOCUSING THE STEADIEST RAINFALL, WITH OCCASIONAL
EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN ELEMENTS FOR AREAS NORTH/EAST OF ALBANY.
NOTING THE LATEST HREF INDICATING A SWATH OF 1-2" ACROSS S. VT
INTO THE N. BERKSHIRES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG A DEVELOPING
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INLAND FROM THE S. NEW
ENGLAND COAST. RAINFALL RATES DO LOOK HEAVIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST, WITH 50% PROBS FOR > 1" IN 3 HRS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL, THE HYDRO SITUATION LOOKS MANAGEABLE, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
BE SOME RIVER RISES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HOOSIC AND WALLOOMSAC
WHERE THE LATEST HEFS IS SHOWING A 10-30% OF MINOR FLOODING
WHICH IS STILL LOW. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS/LOW LYING AREAS IS
LIKELY. THE STEADY BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL PIVOT NORTH OF THE
AREA LATER THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHTER
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD TONIGHT. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER COOL/DAMP DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S. ALSO LOWERED CHANCES OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN LIMITED ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.
WHILE THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH/EAST OF OUR
AREA BY FRI, WE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. SO IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LOW. LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IT WILL REMAIN MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS AROUND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH WELL EAST OF OUR AREA BY
SAT, WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HEIGHT RISES DEVELOPING.
SO TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FLIP TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS (MAINLY
70S) SAT. A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN, BUT WITH NO DISCERNIBLE COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT. WENT
BELOW NBM BY A FEW DEGREES FOR HIGHS, BUT STILL LOOKING AT
UPPER 70S TO PERHAPS SOME LOWER 80S SOUTH OF ALBANY SUN P.M.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED MON/TUE, WHICH
WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF +1 TO +3 ARE STILL FORECAST
FROM THE NAEFS. NBM HIGHS DID LOOK TOO WARM BASED ON COMPARISON
WITH OTHER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE, SO THEY WERE LOWERED IN COLLAB
WITH WPC. STILL, HIGHS COULD REACH THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS FROM
I-90 SOUTH MON AND MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST LOWER ELEVATION
AREAS ON TUE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME POSSIBLE CONVECTION ON
TUE, AS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
UPSTREAM (REAL) COLD FRONT MAY NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL WED-THU
TIME FRAME, SO WHILE TUE LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WED.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/FRIDAY...AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION, PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR IF MORE MODERATE SHOWERS OCCUR BETWEEN
06Z-12Z. THIS IS SHOWN IN A PROB30. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A
POSSIBILITY OF FOG LINGERING AROUND KGFL THROUGH ABOUT 08Z
WHICH COULD LOWER VIS AND CIGS FURTHER TO LIFR. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL THEN TRANSITION TO PERIODS OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
AROUND SUNRISE KEEPING MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE EVENING. A FEW BURSTS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR MID
AFTERNOON LOWERING CIGS UNDER 1,000 FT AGL RESULTING IN LIFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THE RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO A
DRIZZLE JUST AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AROUND 20Z AT KPOU FIRST
RETURNING TO VFR FOLLOWED BY KPSF AROUND 01Z. KGFL AND KALB
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WHICH COULD KEEP FLIGHT CONDITIONS MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT 5 KT OR LESS BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS SHIFT WITH DAYBREAK RANGING FORM
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 5-10 KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN DECREASE UNDER 5 KT BY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...53
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