327
FXUS61 KALY 141744
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND THE BERKSHIRES THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOWERED THUNDER PROBABILITIES TO SLIGHT CHANCE TODAY
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED FROM
NBM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID MAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS. WHILE PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED ON
ROADWAYS, THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
2) A NOTICEABLE WARMUP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS WEEKEND WITH A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE AREA INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AN OCCLUDED FRONT. THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS SHOULD THEN SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS AS THE FRONT
STALLS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL THEN PIVOT BACK TO THE NW AND EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
CORE OF THE UPPER LOW BECOMES CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NY/NE PA AND
UPPER DIFFLUENCE INCREASES. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT FOCUSING THE STEADIEST RAINFALL, WITH OCCASIONAL
EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN ELEMENTS FOR AREAS NORTH/EAST OF ALBANY.
NOTING THE LATEST HREF INDICATING A SWATH OF 1-2" ACROSS S. VT
INTO THE N. BERKSHIRES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG A DEVELOPING
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INLAND FROM THE S. NEW
ENGLAND COAST. RAINFALL RATES DO LOOK HEAVIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST, WITH 50% PROBS FOR > 1" IN 3 HRS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL, THE HYDRO SITUATION LOOKS MANAGEABLE, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
BE SOME RIVER RISES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HOOSIC AND WALLOOMSAC
WHERE THE LATEST HEFS IS SHOWING A 10-30% OF MINOR FLOODING
WHICH IS STILL LOW. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS/LOW LYING AREAS IS
LIKELY. THE STEADY BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL PIVOT NORTH OF THE
AREA LATER THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHTER
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD TONIGHT. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER COOL/DAMP DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S. ALSO LOWERED CHANCES OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN LIMITED ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.
WHILE THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH/EAST OF OUR
AREA BY FRI, WE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. SO IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LOW. LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IT WILL REMAIN MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS AROUND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH WELL EAST OF OUR AREA BY
SAT, WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HEIGHT RISES DEVELOPING.
SO TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FLIP TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS (MAINLY
70S) SAT. A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN, BUT WITH NO DISCERNIBLE COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT. WENT
BELOW NBM BY A FEW DEGREES FOR HIGHS, BUT STILL LOOKING AT
UPPER 70S TO PERHAPS SOME LOWER 80S SOUTH OF ALBANY SUN P.M.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED MON/TUE, WHICH
WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF +1 TO +3 ARE STILL FORECAST
FROM THE NAEFS. NBM HIGHS DID LOOK TOO WARM BASED ON COMPARISON
WITH OTHER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE, SO THEY WERE LOWERED IN COLLAB
WITH WPC. STILL, HIGHS COULD REACH THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS FROM
I-90 SOUTH MON AND MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST LOWER ELEVATION
AREAS ON TUE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME POSSIBLE CONVECTION ON
TUE, AS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
UPSTREAM (REAL) COLD FRONT MAY NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL WED-THU
TIME FRAME, SO WHILE TUE LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WED.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/FRI...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL
OCCUR TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND, ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS COULD
OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR/MVFR INTO THIS
EVENING EXCEPT MOSTLY MVFR AT KPSF. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY
OCCUR WITHIN SHOWERS. TONIGHT, MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER MORE INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH SOME
PERIODS OF IFR ALSO POSSIBLE, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT KPSF. AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DEPARTS ON FRIDAY, SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 18Z/FRI. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF
THE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
10 KT OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...33/23
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