351
FXUS61 KALY 150032
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
832 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST
GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST TRACK OF A LOW IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, REGIONWIDE RAINFALL TOTALS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING HAVE DECREASED. OTHERWISE, THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO POSE ANY FLOODING CONCERNS.
2) THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A VERTICALLY STACKED, UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY RESIDES LARGELY OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WITH A SURFACE CYCLONE IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. A BROAD, INVERTED
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING NORTH AND WEST OFF THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE CYCLONE, DRIVING AN AREA OF RAIN AND
BROKEN SHOWERS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AS THIS CYCLONE TRACKS FARTHER
NORTH AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, THIS AREA OF RAIN
WILL PIVOT TO THE NORTH AND WEST, PRIMARILY EXPANDING OVER AREAS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. INCREASED LOW-LEVEL FORCING
INTERSECTING INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL LEAD TO SOME EMBEDDED MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
IN FACT, THE LATEST HREF INDICATES LARGELY 10-30% PROBABILITIES
FOR >1" IN THREE HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND
BERKSHIRES. HOWEVER, LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THE TRACK OF
THE CYCLONE FARTHER OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY, WESTERLY WINDS IN
THESE AREAS WILL LIMIT UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. THEREFORE,
CONFIDENCE INCREASED SUFFICIENTLY TO DECREASE QPF WITH THIS
FORECAST ITERATION TO BETTER MATCH THESE TRENDS. CONFIDENCE HAS
SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASED FURTHER IN THE BENEFICIAL NATURE OF THIS
RAIN AND LACK OF RESULTING FLOODING.
AS THE INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE CYCLONE AND
UPPER-LEVEL LOW BEGIN TO DEPART OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT, THE
RESULTING AREA OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS
THAT LOOK TO LINGER POTENTIALLY INTO MID- TO LATE-MORNING TOMORROW.
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM ABOUT, OR JUST UNDER, 0.1" TO 0.5" OUTSIDE OF PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER-HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS WHERE 0.5" TO
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1.5".
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD BEGINNING TOMORROW WHEN HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
WE STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LARGELY WITHIN THE 50S AND 60S. HOWEVER, FLAT RIDGING AND A
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES SURGE LARGELY INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE FURTHER HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE EAST COAST. AT
THIS TIME, TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS WE LOOK TO BE
LOCKED INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS LOOK TO
EACH AT LEAST WIDESPREAD 80S IF NOT HIGHER IN THE VALLEYS. AT THIS
TIME, WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES LARGELY DEPENDENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE RISK FOR HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MIX OF VFR, MVFR, AND IFR CONDITIONS AS OF
8:30 PM EDT. TREND THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE FOR MAINLY
MVFR/VFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR AT ALB/GFL, WITH CIGS AT ALB/GFL/PSF
TRENDING DOWN TO IFR BY BY 06-08Z, POSSIBLY A LITTLE EARLIER AT PSF.
POU SHOULD TREND DOWN TO MVFR AS WELL LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS WELL AT
ALB/GFL. CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW, AND
BACK TO VFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL BE BRIEF AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY FLIGHT CATEGORY
RESTRICTIONS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE N/NW AT AROUND 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT AND AT 4-8 KT
TOMORROW, EXCEPT AT GFL AND PSF WHERE WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE
FROM THE NE AT 4- 8 KT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...35
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