208
FXUS61 KALY 151114
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TODAY, ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING FROM AROUND I-90 NORTH. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ONE MORE DAY.
2) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
POTENTIAL OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CORE OF THE UPPER LOW STARTING TO DRIFT SOUTH/EAST OF OUR AREA,
SO RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOW SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SARATOGA REGION DUE TO DEVELOPING NORTHERLY
FLOW. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONCENTRATED FROM AROUND I-90 NORTH. THE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 8 AM, AS THE
CORE UPPER LOW DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY. SO MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY, WITH JUST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NW
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH. NORTHERLY/CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY, WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN FROM TIME TO
TIME. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S. DRY/CLEARING IN STORE TONIGHT AS SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FLAT UPPER RIDGING TAKES HOLD ON SAT, WITH A WARMER AIR MASS
BUILDING IN. SO AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF COOL WEATHER, TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY FLIP TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 70S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN, WHICH COULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY STARTING SAT
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT IT WILL STILL BE WARM, WITH HIGHS SUN
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER (MID 80S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY) IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.
UPPER RIDGING THEN STRENGTHENS IN THE EASTERN CONUS MON INTO
TUE, WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS. TUE STILL LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO PERHAPS EVEN SOME LOWER 90S SOUTH OF
ALBANY. AT THIS TIME, DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S, SO PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET, BUT GIVEN THIS
HEAT IS VERY EARLY IN THE SEASON SOME HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES MAY
RESULT. THE HEAT RISK IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATE(LEVEL 2 OF 4)
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUE. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY RESULT IN
SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON TUE. WED STILL LOOKS VERY WARM,
PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUE, ALTHOUGH MOST SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE INDICATE A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LIKELY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND MAGNITUDE
OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AIR MASS, SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z/SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TO OUR
SOUTHEAST, KENX RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS PIVOTING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF KALB AND TAPERING OFF AT OR JUST AFTER THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS STILL A MIX OF VFR, MVFR, AND IFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH KGFL AND KALB PREDOMINANTLY MVFR
UNTIL ABOUT 15Z. IFR CIGS LINGER AT KPSF LIKELY UNTIL 14Z FROM
SOME PERSISTENT FOG. KPOU REMAINS VFR WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY
EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD FIRST RETURN IN THE
AFTERNOON AT KPOU AND THEN AT KALB, KGFL, AND KPSF AFTER ABOUT
18Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CLOSE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS INTO
TOMORROW MORNING SUGGEST PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP AT KGFL AND
KPSF THROUGH SUNRISE TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND LIGHT AT 5 KT OR LESS
THIS MORNING BEFORE PICKING UP AROUND 4-8 KT THIS AFTERNOON. LATER
THIS EVENING WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST AT KGFL AND KPSF. WINDS THEN
BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...53
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