677
FXUS61 KALY 151743
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
143 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TODAY, ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING FROM AROUND I-90 NORTH. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ONE MORE DAY.
2) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
POTENTIAL OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CORE OF THE UPPER LOW STARTING TO DRIFT SOUTH/EAST OF OUR AREA,
SO RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOW SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SARATOGA REGION DUE TO DEVELOPING NORTHERLY
FLOW. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONCENTRATED FROM AROUND I-90 NORTH. THE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 8 AM, AS THE
CORE UPPER LOW DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY. SO MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY, WITH JUST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NW
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH. NORTHERLY/CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY, WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN FROM TIME TO
TIME. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S. DRY/CLEARING IN STORE TONIGHT AS SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FLAT UPPER RIDGING TAKES HOLD ON SAT, WITH A WARMER AIR MASS
BUILDING IN. SO AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF COOL WEATHER, TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY FLIP TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 70S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN, WHICH COULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY STARTING SAT
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT IT WILL STILL BE WARM, WITH HIGHS SUN
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER (MID 80S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY) IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.
UPPER RIDGING THEN STRENGTHENS IN THE EASTERN CONUS MON INTO
TUE, WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS. TUE STILL LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO PERHAPS EVEN SOME LOWER 90S SOUTH OF
ALBANY. AT THIS TIME, DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S, SO PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET, BUT GIVEN THIS
HEAT IS VERY EARLY IN THE SEASON SOME HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES MAY
RESULT. THE HEAT RISK IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATE(LEVEL 2 OF 4)
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUE. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY RESULT IN
SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON TUE. WED STILL LOOKS VERY WARM,
PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUE, ALTHOUGH MOST SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE INDICATE A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LIKELY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND MAGNITUDE
OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AIR MASS, SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/SAT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MIXED MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS, MAINLY NEAR KALB/KGFL/KPSF. CLEARING SHOULD BEGIN THIS
EVENING FOR MOST IF NOT ALL SITES BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR EITHER LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD
LEAD TO CONDITIONS LOWERING TO LIFR/IFR. ANY FOG OR STRATUS
LIFTS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT
5-10 KT SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...33/23
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