401
FXUS61 KALY 151857
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
257 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS FORECAST ITERATION,
AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A PERIOD OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGINS TOMORROW AND
WILL LAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL
RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS IS LOW.
2) THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, THE
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
PERTAINING TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIRMASS TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION TOMORROW
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES LARGELY DOMINANT
AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUBSEQUENTLY SURGE TO +1 TO +2.5 STDEVS
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS OF UPPER 60S TO LOW 80S TOMORROW WILL GIVE
WAY TO A GRADUAL INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY WHERE TEMPERATURES
REACH WIDESPREAD 80S TO EVEN LOW 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY. BUT, A COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WILL MAKE
THIS THE LAST DAY OF OUR ABOVE-NORMAL STRETCH WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S. THURSDAY, IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, WILL
FEATURE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL, IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER
60S WITH SOME POCKETS OF LOW 70S IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
THE MOST IMPORTANT TAKEAWAY HERE IS THAT WHILE WE ARE
ANTICIPATING ANOMALOUS WARMTH, WE ARE ALSO ANTICIPATING DRY
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS ULTIMATELY DRIVES THE LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR THE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES. HOWEVER,
THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THERE WON'T BE A RISK AT ALL. THIS WILL
BE THE WARMEST AND MOST PROLONGED STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER THAT
WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THUS FAR THIS YEAR. THEREFORE, THE LACK OF
ADAPTATION TO THESE TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY IN THOSE
VULNERABLE TO HEALTH RISKS DUE TO MORE PROFOUND HEAT, COULD
INCREASE THE RISK FOR ISOLATED CASES OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND/OR
HEAT STROKE. BE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND HAVE WAYS TO
COOL OFF DURING THIS STRETCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT NOW LOOKS TO SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THIS FRONT, WHICH HAS TRENDED SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. INVERTED-V PROFILES ON SOME OF THE LONGER-
RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT STRONG WINDS WOULD
LIKELY BE THE GREATEST HAZARD, BUT IT COULD ALSO MEAN INCREASED
STABILITY AND A SUBSEQUENT LACK OF ENERGY TO DRIVE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WE ARE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AS LEAD TIME
DECREASES, BUT AT THE VERY LEAST, WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE OUR NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/SAT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MIXED MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS, MAINLY NEAR KALB/KGFL/KPSF. CLEARING SHOULD BEGIN THIS
EVENING FOR MOST IF NOT ALL SITES BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR EITHER LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD
LEAD TO CONDITIONS LOWERING TO LIFR/IFR. ANY FOG OR STRATUS
LIFTS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT
5-10 KT SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...33/23
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