806
FXUS61 KALY 170540
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL
RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS IS LOW, AS HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
2) THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS LOW GIVEN ONGOING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TODAY KICKS OFF THE FIRST DAY OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE A 4 TO 5 DAY
STRETCH OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MONTH-TO-DATE
TEMPERATURES AT OUR CLIMATE SITES AVERAGES ABOVE 4 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SO THIS WARM STRETCH WILL HELP ERODE THE COLD TREND WE HAVE
SEEN SO FAR THIS MAY. LOTS OF INSOLATION AND DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE EAST COAST WILL SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S AND EVEN LOW 80S IN VALLEY AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THEN, A SFC PRESSURE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SLIDES EASTWARD THIS EVENING RESULTING IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. THE
BOUNDARY WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS EAST GIVEN THE PARENT TROUGH REMAINS
DISPLACED WELL TO OUR NORTH SO EXPECTING THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. SHOWERS
GRADUALLY FALL APART AS THEY HEAD INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW COMBINED WITH
ZONAL/WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES RISING EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY. IN FACT, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25MPH AND A DRY
AIR MASS ALOFT SUPPORTING DEEP BOUNDARY MIXING THAT WILL LIKELY
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO OVERPERFORM. WE THEREFORE LEANED ON THE WARMER
END OF THE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TOMORROW GIVEN THERE IS A 75% CHANCE
FOR VALLEY AREAS TO EXCEED 80S DEGREES. THERE IS EVEN A LOW CHANCE
FOR THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S. HOWEVER, DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S WILL MITIGATE HEAT-RISK.
THE STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY CONTINUES MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHERE THE LATEST NAEFS AND ENS SHOW 850HPA
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES RANGING 2 TO 2.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE NORTHEAST. LUCKILY, LOWER DEW POINTS WILL KEEP
HUMIDITY LEVELS IN CHECK AND THUS REDUCE HEAT-RISK LEVELS TO MINOR
OR MODERATE (LEVELS 1 AND 2 OF 4); HOWEVER, GIVEN THIS IS THE FIRST
WARM STRETCH IN ABOUT A MONTH, WE STILL ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO DRINK
PLENTY OF WARM AND AVOID STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE WITH ITS CREST CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES STARTS TO
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST ITS ASSOCIATED SFC WARM FRONT CAN
EXTEND. THE LATEST SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE
GUIDANCE FROM THE NBM SHOWS THAT THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE
BOUNDARY REACHING AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
LESS CONFIDENCE IN IT REACHING WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AREAS THAT CAN
TAP INTO THE ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH/EAST LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 70S WHERE SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS AND SHALLOWER MIXING
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY LOWER. THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 85 DEGREES, MAINLY IN VALLEY
AREAS, BY TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE ONE "FLY IN THE OINTMENT" FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY RELATES TO CLOUD COVERAGE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A SFC
PRESSURE TROUGH OR WEAK SHORTWAVES TO RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (WEAK SHEAR SHOULD MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS). THERE REMAINS DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE GUIDANCE ON
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY SO WE MAINLY
ONLY SHOW CHANCE POPS. SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS INTO WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST AND A COLD FRONT MARCHES
EASTWARD. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY, THERE IS A
MODERATE CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES CAN STILL RISE WELL INTO THE 80S,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES TREND MUCH LOWER BY THURSDAY IN THE
WAKE OF OUR BOUNDARY, BRINGING AN END TO OUR WARM STRETCH. WHILE
IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THIS WARM STRETCH WILL BREAK RECORDS, WE
ADDED HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS TO OUR CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WHILE CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS
LOW GIVEN ONGOING CERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF AN INCOMING COLD
FRONT. SHOULD THE BOUNDARY ARRIVE EARLIER IN THE DAY, THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE LOWER AS THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MAY NOT HAVE CHANCE TO BECOME AS UNSTABLE. ON THE OTHER
HAND, IF THE FRONT IS DELAYED UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY, BOTH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LATEST
FORECAST FAVORS AN AFTERNOON ARRIVAL TIME WHEN WE HAVE WIDESPREAD
LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT THIS REMAINS A RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST GIVEN WE ARE STILL FOUR DAYS AWAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THIS MORNING, BEFORE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
RETURN FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS CONTINUE TO
BE BETWEEN 3 AND 8 KNOTS THIS MORNING, HELPING LIMIT ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING TO BETWEEN 5 AND
10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS CONTINUING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BETWEEN 22Z AND 18/00Z, WINDS DECREASE
AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
CLIMATE
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS:
MAY 17
ALBANY, NY: 92 DEGREES SET IN 2017
GLENS FALLS, NY: 91 DEGREES SET IN 2017
POUGHKEEPSIE, NY: 92 DEGREES SET IN 2017
MAY 18
ALBANY, NY: 94 DEGREES SET IN 2017
GLENS FALLS, NY: 94 DEGREES SET IN 1906
POUGHKEEPSIE, NY: 96 DEGREES SET IN 1962
MAY 19
ALBANY, NY: 91 DEGREES SET IN 1989
GLENS FALLS, NY: 88 DEGREES SET IN 1989
POUGHKEEPSIE, NY: 96 DEGREES SET IN 1962
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...05
CLIMATE...
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