928
FXUS61 KALY 170619
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
219 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FASTER WITH TIMING OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE AS HOT
AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS
IS RELATIVELY LOW, AS HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
2) THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES BY WEDNESDAY, DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH AND TIMING REMAINS
LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ASIDE FROM SOME MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS, TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED
TO THE W-NW AND WILL BECOME BREEZY, WITH GUSTS OF 25 MPH
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ONCE MIXING COMMENCES.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE STILL ANOMALOUSLY WARM, SO SUNSHINE
COMBINED WITH MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TO MID 80S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEAT BUILDS MON INTO TUE, AS UPPER RIDGING
TAKES HOLD WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION BY MON AFTERNOON. NAEFS CONTINUES TO SHOW 850 MB
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF +1 TO +2 STDEV ON MON AND +2 TO +3
STDEV ON TUE. SO HIGHS MON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS. TUE STILL LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING THE LOWER 90S IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT TO PERHAPS MID 90S NEAR POUGHKEEPSIE. DAILY
RECORD HIGHS MAY BE APPROACHED (SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR CURRENT
RECORDS). MOST SOURCES OF GUIDANCE HAVE WARMED CLOSER TO, BUT
NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE NBM. WITH GOOD MIXING EXPECTED BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S TUE P.M., SO PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
CLOSE TO THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE, AND REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 95F.
WITH FASTER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT NOW SEEN AMONG MOST
SOURCES OF GUIDANCE, HIGHS WED SHOULD NOT BE AS WARM RANGING
FROM UPPER 60S IN THE NW ADKS TO LOWER/MID 80S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY. WENT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NBM, WHICH IS NOT CAPTURING
THE FASTER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT YET. IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SOMEWHAT LIMITED SHOWER/T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED UNTIL WED,
DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW/MID LEVEL CAPPING MON AND
TUE. SOME OF THE CAMS ARE SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OFF A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY AND TRACKING INTO
WESTERN PARTS OF THE ADKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER MOVING INTO A A MORE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT. TUE IS LOOKING A BIT MORE ACTIVE ALONG A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH, POSSIBLE PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS. DEPENDING ON DEWPOINTS, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOWER 60S, SBCAPE COULD BUILD TO 1000-2000 J/KG ALONG
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WED, AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING HAS SPED UP
COMPARED TO PRIOR FORECASTS, SO NOW MOST OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY, AND MAYBE EVEN IN THE MORNING
NORTH/WEST THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONGER
STORMS DEVELOPING WED P.M. WOULD BE FOR AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF
ALBANY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF STORMS IS STILL
FAIRLY LOW, ALTHOUGH THERE IS AT LEAST NOW A TREND TOWARDS A
FASTER COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THIS MORNING, BEFORE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES RETURN FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE BETWEEN 3 AND 8 KNOTS THIS MORNING, HELPING LIMIT
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING TO
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KNOTS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BETWEEN 22Z AND 18/00Z,
WINDS DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
CLIMATE
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS:
MAY 17
ALBANY, NY: 92 DEGREES SET IN 2017
GLENS FALLS, NY: 91 DEGREES SET IN 2017
POUGHKEEPSIE, NY: 92 DEGREES SET IN 2017
MAY 18
ALBANY, NY: 94 DEGREES SET IN 2017
GLENS FALLS, NY: 94 DEGREES SET IN 1906
POUGHKEEPSIE, NY: 96 DEGREES SET IN 1962
MAY 19
ALBANY, NY: 91 DEGREES SET IN 1989
GLENS FALLS, NY: 88 DEGREES SET IN 1989
POUGHKEEPSIE, NY: 96 DEGREES SET IN 1962
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...05
CLIMATE...31
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