577
FXUS61 KALY 242323
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
723 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS FROM 06 - 12 UTC MONDAY GIVEN HIGH
PROBABILITIES FROM THE HREF AND OTHER GUIDANCE FOR 6HRLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 0.50" FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO
AREAS NORTH AND WEST. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES REMAIN IN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
WHERE WE CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PONDING OF WATER IN POOR
DRAINAGE AND/OR LOW-LYING AREAS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, MOHAWK VALLEY, SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS, AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS A PERIOD OF MODERATE
RAIN MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
2) TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 315 PM...RAIN SHOWERS THAT HAVE IMPACTED MUCH OF EASTERN
NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE AND EXITING TO OUR EAST AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
COAST OF NJ LIFTS NORTHWARD. WITH THE STRONGEST WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION EXITING INTO NEW ENGLAND THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WE SHOULD ENTER IN A BREAK FROM THE
WIDESPREAD WET WEATHER. HOWEVER, CLOUDS PERSIST AND WE CANNOT
RULE OUT PATCHY DRIZZLE OR A FEW ISOLATED, BRIEF SHOWERS AS RAW
AND CHILLY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
AS THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD TOWARDS 06 UTC, THE SFC
WARM FRONT WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME DRAPED FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE, A RATHER
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED NEAR THE HUDSON BAY
AMPLIFIES AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. INCREASED CVA SPREADING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST COMBINED WITH ENHANCED DIVERGENCE
IN THE EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK TRACKING UP
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL FGEN ALONG THE FRONT IN WESTERN NY. MEANWHILE, SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 850 - 700HPA LAYER STRENGTHEN,
DIRECTING A PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH PWATS
REACHING 1.5 - 1.6" TONIGHT AND IVT ANOMALIES REACHING 3 TO 4 ST
DEV ABOVE NORMAL. THE REGION OF MID- LEVEL FGEN LOOKS TO SWEEP
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY REACHING THE MOHAWK
VALLEY, SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY BY 06 - 09
UTC BEFORE SLIDING INTO THE REST OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND BY 09 - 15 UTC MONDAY.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE HREF REMAINS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
FOR 6-HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING; THEREFORE, OUR KEY MESSAGE FOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
POTENTIAL CONTINUES. LATEST VALUES SHOW A GREATER THAN 75%
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 06 - 12 UTC MONDAY TO EXCEED
0.50" FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST WITH
EVEN A 30 TO 50% CHANCE TO EXCEED 1 INCH IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. WEAK MUCAPE TONIGHT ALSO SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED INSTABILITY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WITH WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS GREATER THAN 10KFT, EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES
CAN ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES. AS THE AREA OF MODERATE RAIN SLIDES
EASTWARD 12 - 15 UTC MONDAY, 6-HOURLY RAINFALL PROBABILITIES
GREATER THAN 0.50" TREND DOWNWARDS (AS IT OUTRUNS THE STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL FORCING) BUT REMAIN 40 TO 60%. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
WHILE STEADY RAIN CONTINUES, THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING SHOULD TREND DOWNWARDS COMPARED TO AREAS NORTH/WEST. BY
15 - 18 UTC, STEADY RAIN FINALLY EXITS TO OUR EAST WITH CLOUDS
GIVING WAY TO BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUN AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE 70S. THUS, THE SECOND HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WILL
FEATURE IMPROVED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE NICEST DAY OF THE
WEEK THANKS TO ZONAL ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVERHEAD LEADING TO SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. THEN, WE WILL
MONITOR A COMPACT AND RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD
OUT OF NORTHERN QUEBEC THAT HAS POTENTIAL TO CUT-OFF AND LEAD TO
A CLOSED REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAIN. WHILE
THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING TIMING, POSITION AND
INTENSITY OF THE CLOSED LOW, THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH OUR AREA TOO EARLY IN THE DAY, THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH. NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
THE PATTERN IN THE NORTHEAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS
AN OMEGA BLOCK PERSISTS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES TRACKING DOWNSTREAM OF THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR CIGS IN PLACE TO START THE
PERIOD (EXCEPT VFR AT KGFL), WITH A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE
RAINFALL AND LOWER CIGS. RAIN WILL RE-DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 04Z-10Z, ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL LIKELY
LOWER PRIOR TO THE RAIN DEVELOPING. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER
THROUGH MVFR LEVELS TO IFR TONIGHT, WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR AS THE
STEADIEST RAIN OCCURS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE RAIN WILL THEN
END FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 14Z-16Z MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IFR
SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BETWEEN 19Z-21Z MONDAY. WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KT OR LESS, BECOMING NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 5-10 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...07
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