211
FXUS61 KALY 250601
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
201 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS A BLEND OF WPC AND THE NBM FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THIS MORNING. WHILE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH
ARE EXPECTED WITH STEADY RAINFALL THIS MORNING, NO ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE OF SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STEADY RAINFALL THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY,
ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY, WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATE DAY
HOURS.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE-NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE WARMUP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION, WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT WILL BE SLIDING EASTWARD TOWARDS,
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THIS MORNING.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL JUST WEST OF THE AREA OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. NYS MESONET OBSERVATIONS GENERALLY SHOW 1-HR
RAINFALL RATES AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR,
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED TOTALS AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH PER HOUR. 3-HR TOTALS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 0.60 TENTHS.
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS A BLEND OF WPC AND NBM TOTALS FOR RAINFALL,
WITH MAX AMOUNTS IN THE 06Z-18Z TIME FRAME OF ABOUT TWO-THIRDS
OF AN INCH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER MOHAWK
VALLEY. WITH RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND VEGETATION ACTIVE ACROSS
THE REGION, THIS RAINFALL WON'T BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING ANY
HYDROLOGIC ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME PONDING AND PUDDLES ON ROADS
AND SIDEWALKS. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND CAMS, NORTHERN AREAS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THIS MORNING, WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FOR THE CATSKILLS, MID
HUDSON VALLEY, BERKSHIRES AND NW CT.
BASED ON THE LATEST TIMING IN THE GUIDANCE, THE STEADY RAINFALL
WILL BE EXITING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 9 AM TO NOON. WHILE IT
WILL BE CLOUDY AND DAMP TO START THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE 50S, THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS OF SUN BY AFTERNOON.
WITH THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY RECOVER
INTO THE 60S, WITH SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE IN VALLEY AREAS BY LATE
IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND HAS BEEN DREARY,
DAMP AND COOL, THIS WILL BE A LAST MINUTE EFFORT TO SALVAGE SOME
BETTER WEATHER (ALTHOUGH STILL SUB-PAR COMPARED TO LAST
WEEKEND). WHILE EARLY-DAY PARADES AND OTHER SERVICES MAY STILL
BE IMPACTED BY WET CONDITIONS THIS MORNING, THERE SHOULD BE
BETTER CONDITIONS FOR LATER IN THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS WHAT USUALLY SEEMS TO OCCUR AROUND THIS PART OF THE WORLD,
WARMER AND SUNNY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH THE RETURN
BACK TO SCHOOL AND WORK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW CLOUDS OR
SOME FOG PATCHES TO START THE DAY, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION. WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT (850 HPA TEMPS REACHING +10 TO +12 C) WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS
TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN VALLEY AREAS AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH SIMILAR
TEMPS IN PLACE. HOWEVER, THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE CLOUDS. A LATE DAY SHOWER
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS, BUT
PRECIP WILL BRIEF AND SPOTTY AND NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE BETTER FORCING IS STILL OFF
TO THE NORTH AND WEST, SO PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE.
MOST MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE
LOWER HEIGHTS AND COLD POOL ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING
DOWN ONCE AGAIN AND HIGHS MAY ONLY BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S BY
THE WEEKEND. TEMPS MAY ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON ANY PRECIP AND
CLOUDS, WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WHILE SOME
SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
MOISTURE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED, AS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIP COULD BE EAST OF THE REGION, ALTHOUGH THIS COULD EASILY
SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST. AT THIS POINT, THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO
BE MUCH POTENTIAL FOR EITHER HEAVY PRECIPITATION OR STRONG
STORMS AT THIS TIME, SO NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THIS MORNING AS A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE. VERY MOIST FORECAST PROFILES INDICATE THAT IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COMMON THROUGHOUT NOT ONLY THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT, BUT AT LEAST INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL LIGHT
RAINFALL RATES SHOULD GENERALLY MAINTAIN THE CATEGORIES CURRENTLY
HELD AT EACH TERMINAL WITH ONLY MINOR IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY
ANTICIPATED AND LITTLE, IF ANY, IMPACTS TO CEILING HEIGHTS. HOWEVER,
ONCE RAINFALL RATES BECOME STEADY TO EVEN LOCALLY MODERATE, CEILING
HEIGHTS WILL DROP TO IFR THRESHOLDS EVERYWHERE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
VISIBILITIES REDUCING TO THE SAME CATEGORY. THIS WILL BE
PARTICULARLY POSSIBLE AT KGFL, KALB, AND KPSF.
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEPART
RATHER QUICKLY LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
ALLOWING RAIN TO QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
CEILING HEIGHTS DON'T LOOK TO REBOUND RIGHT AWAY AS VISIBILITIES
WILL, REMAINING AT LEAST AT MVFR HEIGHTS LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING, A BREAK IN
CEILINGS WILL YIELD THE RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. LARGELY
NORTHEAST WINDS AT PRESENT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE BACKING TO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT,
HOWEVER, WITH ALL TERMINALS LOOKING TO MAINTAIN SPEEDS UNDER 10
KT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...12
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