049
FXUS61 KALY 260601
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
201 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK FOR SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS.
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE NBM AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN DIURNAL HEATING ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM NBM VALUES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POTENTIAL.
WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME PASSING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS
WELL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK BELOW
NORMAL BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (AROUND 1021 HPA) IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AND THIS WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY. DESPITE THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA, THERE
ARE SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH THESE
ARE FAIRLY THIN AND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT IN PLACE, SOME
PATCHY FOG IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
ALTHOUGH THE SHORT DURATION OF THE OVERNIGHT, PASSING CLOUDS AND
A LINGERING BREEZE IN SPOTS WILL KEEP THIS FOG FROM BEING OVERLY
WIDESPREAD. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK FOR
SHELTERED AREAS, BUT IT SHOULD BE BURNING OFF QUICKLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO THE STRONG LATE MAY SUNSHINE.
WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT (850 HPA NEAR +12 TO
+14 C), HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW 80S IN VALLEY AREAS.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE IN THE 50S, BUT IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY WARMER COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DEPART OFF THE
COAST OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC FOR TONIGHT, BUT IT WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
ON WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED, BUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS MAY TRY TO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY
FROM THE CAMS, SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ANY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM, AS THE FRONT SHOULD BE
APPROACHING THAT AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. NO STRONG STORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED AS INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY LIMITED AND THE LACK OF
MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP FAIRLY SPOTTY. TEMPS LOOK SIMILAR
TO TUESDAY WITH MOST VALLEY AREAS INTO THE 80S.
BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS
WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND DEWPOINTS
WILL BE DOWN INTO THE 40S AS WELL.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND DROP ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BE A MORE NOTABLE UPPER LEVEL LOW, WHICH COULD DROP 850 HPA
TEMPS BELOW ZERO, WITH 500 HPA HEIGHTS ABOUT 1-2 STD BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY, ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GEFS. ALTHOUGH MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL THIS
FEATURE WILL MAINLY BE EAST OF THE REGION, SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPS LOOK COOLER THAN NORMAL AND EVEN CURRENT
FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MAY BE TOO HIGH IF MORE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS WERE TO OCCUR. WHILE TEMPS LOOK BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE LATE WEEK, NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AS NO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR BASED ON THE EXPECTED PATTERN.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS AND
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPO GROUPS HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED MIST/FOG THAT COULD BRING MVFR VIS AND SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS THIS MORNING, PARTICULARLY AT KGFL AND KPOU, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY 11Z. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES
OR SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO MORE
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON, ALSO INCREASING TO AROUND
10 KTS AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AGAIN TOWARDS THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH PREVAILING WINDS REMAINING OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...23
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