104
FXUS61 KALY 261846
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
246 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS FOR
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
LOWERED EACH DAY (BUT STILL WARM TOMORROW) AND SKY COVERAGE
ADJUSTED TO MATCH CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK BELOW NORMAL BY THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTERNOON UPDATE: MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY FROM THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS. THE LATEST FORECAST
SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND MID-80S. THEN, COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH SEASONAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN STORE IN THE 60S AND 70S. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, SO INCREASED CLOUD
COVERAGE IN ALL HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS AND PORTIONS OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT. SKY COVERAGE FOR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO INCLUDE LATEST FORECAST TRENDS OF
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH PERIODIC BREAKS. WITH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS TONIGHT, PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW DUE TO HOW LONG
THE CLEAR SKIES COULD OCCUR. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK, SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
(850 HPA NEAR +12 TO +14 C), HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW 80S IN
VALLEY AREAS. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE IN THE 50S, BUT
IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DEPART
OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC FOR TONIGHT, BUT IT
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
ON WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED, BUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS MAY TRY TO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY
FROM THE CAMS, SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ANY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM, AS THE FRONT SHOULD BE
APPROACHING THAT AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. NO STRONG STORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED AS INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY LIMITED AND THE LACK OF
MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP FAIRLY SPOTTY. TEMPS LOOK SIMILAR
TO TUESDAY WITH MOST VALLEY AREAS INTO THE 80S.
BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS
WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND DEWPOINTS
WILL BE DOWN INTO THE 40S AS WELL.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND DROP ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BE A MORE NOTABLE UPPER LEVEL LOW, WHICH COULD DROP 850 HPA
TEMPS BELOW ZERO, WITH 500 HPA HEIGHTS ABOUT 1-2 STD BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY, ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GEFS. ALTHOUGH MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL THIS
FEATURE WILL MAINLY BE EAST OF THE REGION, SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPS LOOK COOLER THAN NORMAL AND EVEN CURRENT
FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MAY BE TOO HIGH IF MORE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS WERE TO OCCUR. WHILE TEMPS LOOK BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE LATE WEEK, NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AS NO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR BASED ON THE EXPECTED PATTERN.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/WED...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH IF NOT
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND HIGH CIRRUS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A LINGERING LIGHT WIND
IN MOST SPOTS, THE PROBABILITY FOR FOG FORMATION TONIGHT IS
LOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BRING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME PASSING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWER COVERAGE, IF ANY, LOOKS VERY
ISOLATED. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 10 KT WEDNESDAY MORNING EXCEPT BECOMING
NORTHERLY AT KGFL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27/05
AVIATION...33
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