654
FXUS61 KALY 271819
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
219 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE TIMING OF TODAY'S COLD FRONT HAS SPED UP A BIT IN COMPARISON
TO WHAT THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD BEEN SHOWING. HOWEVER, THIS
CHANGE HAS DONE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ALTERING THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE PROBABILITY OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS
IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ONE LAST DAY OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY PRECEDES A
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MIXING INTO A +10C TO +15C 850MB
AIRMASS, ALONG WITH LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPING WITHIN VALLEY AREAS
COURTESY OF WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, WILL PROMOTE HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 70S TO 80S. IN FACT, PORTIONS OF THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO OVER PERFORM AND REACH
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT ITSELF IS RATHER MOISTURE-STARVED AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
KEEPS MOISTURE ADVECTION TO A MINIMUM. THEREFORE, THE PASSAGE OF
THIS BOUNDARY DOES NOT LOOK TO BRING MUCH, IF ANY,
PRECIPITATION. THAT SAID, THE LOWER MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY HAVE THE GREATEST PROBABILITY (LESS THAN OR
EQUAL TO 15%) OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW PROBABILITY IS LARGELY ATTRIBUTED TO THE
GREATER AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PROGGED FOR THESE AREAS. HOWEVER,
WITH MOST OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE HINTING AT LARGE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS, IT'S MORE PROBABLE THAT THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL
INHIBIT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND.
A COOL-ADVECTION REGIME WILL TAKE FORM IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THIS EVENING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THEIR DOWNWARD
TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY WILL
FEATURE SEASONABLY NORMAL HIGHS WITH LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION, BUT THE ONCE
AGAIN LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT QPF. THEN, FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY, POPS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS A FAIRLY
POTENT, UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS SINK INTO THE REGION FROM
QUEBEC. WITHOUT AN UNDISTURBED MOISTURE SOURCE, THE RAINFALL WE
ULTIMATELY RECEIVE FROM THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE. THEREFORE, THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
THE MORE NOTABLE EFFECT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON THE REGION IS
ITS COOLING OF TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S AND 60S COURTESY OF UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS AROUND 1.5 STDEVS BELOW NORMAL AND DEEP, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW DRIVING FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.
LUCKILY, THE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL NOT BE LONG LASTING
AS FLAT RIDGING BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY AND BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NORMAL. NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGER
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MAY ALSO RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. BUT WITH PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME, WE MAINTAINED JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. CURRENT GOES
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FEW/SCATTERED LOW CUMULUS TYPE AND THIN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING COULD EVEN
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AT KALB. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CLOUDS IN THE 4000-7000 FT AGL RANGE WILL THEN MOVE IN AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE, FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SCATTERED AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVER TOMORROW AFTERNOON TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS NEAR 10 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WINDS THEN SHIFT AFTER 22Z THIS EVENING OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST 5-
10 KT BEFORE DECREASING TO 5 KT OR LESS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT. WINDS PICK BACK UP AGAIN BY 16Z TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS 9-12 KT AND GUSTS 20-25 KT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...53
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page