003
FXUS61 KALY 272038
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
438 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RADAR INDICATING A FEW STORMS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE
BERKSHIRE/LITCHFIELD BORDER ALONG A COLD FRONT. ISSUED A QUICK
UPDATE TO ADD WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO THIS AREA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A FEW BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN QUICKLY DROP INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE
FRONT.
07
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES END TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN STORE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
2) MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (>50%) FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCES (<30%) FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, WITH VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR ANY FLOODING IMPACTS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT WITH NO MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AND FRIDAY CONTINUE TO BE LOWERED
BASED ON LATEST ENSEMBLE AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCES AS
HIGHS RANGE IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S. FOR SATURDAY, A CHILLY
MORNING IS TO START THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW 50S AND 60S, 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE UPPER 60S AND
70S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FOR FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ENSEMBLE FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE WHERE THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE. THIS CONTRIBUTES TO START TIMING AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FLUCTUATING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AT THIS
FORECAST PERIOD, RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT RANGING
BETWEEN 0.01 AND 0.1 INCHES FOR LOCATIONS EAST AND NORTH OF ALBANY.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE FROM LOW TO HIGH
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. NEVERTHELESS, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR NO FLOODING CONCERNS AS THE RISK IS VERY
LOW DUE TO HOW DRY AND WARM WE HAVE BEEN THE LAST TWO DAYS
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND LOW RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE 24 HOUR TIMEFRAME. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR DRIER CONDITIONS TO RETURN
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER,
OVERCAST SKIES COULD BE IN STORE AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST. SUNDAY STARTS OUT DRY IN THE MORNING,
WITH LOW CHANCES (LESS THAN 30%) RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON AS
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. CURRENT GOES
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FEW/SCATTERED LOW CUMULUS TYPE AND THIN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING COULD EVEN
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AT KALB. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CLOUDS IN THE 4000-7000 FT AGL RANGE WILL THEN MOVE IN AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE, FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SCATTERED AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVER TOMORROW AFTERNOON TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS NEAR 10 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WINDS THEN SHIFT AFTER 22Z THIS EVENING OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST 5-
10 KT BEFORE DECREASING TO 5 KT OR LESS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT. WINDS PICK BACK UP AGAIN BY 16Z TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS 9-12 KT AND GUSTS 20-25 KT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...53
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