439
FXUS61 KALY 281920
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
320 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
2) MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THEN BREEZY CONDITIONS
ON SATURDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
3) UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH
LOW CHANCES FOR NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
BASED ON LATEST ENSEMBLE AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCES AS
HIGHS RANGE IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S. FOR SATURDAY, A CHILLY
MORNING IS TO START THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW 50S AND 60S, 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE UPPER 60S AND
70S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FOR FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ENSEMBLE FORECAST
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WHERE THE CENTER OF
THE LOW WILL BE. AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES JUST TO OUR WEST
OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND, WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL
HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO VERY EARLY SATURDAY. AT THIS
FORECAST PERIOD, RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT RANGING
BETWEEN 0.01 AND 0.2 INCHES, WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS OF 0.2
INCHES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOWEST TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECASTED FOR THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.
NEVERTHELESS, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR NO FLOODING
CONCERNS AS THE RISK IS VERY LOW DUE TO LIGHT RAINFALL NATURE
AND HOW DRY AND WARM WE HAVE BEEN THE LAST TWO DAYS ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR DRIER CONDITIONS
TO RETURN ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. HOWEVER, OVERCAST SKIES COULD BE IN STORE AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST.
ONE NEW FORECAST NOTE FROM YESTERDAY IS WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS
RANGING BETWEEN 20 AND 35 MPH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM HEADS EASTWARD OUT TO SEA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS (>45MPH), BUT NEVERTHELESS
WILL BE BREEZY SATURDAY MORNING IN STORE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SUNDAY STARTS OUT DRY IN THE MORNING, WITH LOW CHANCES (LESS THAN
30%) RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON AS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. DAILY LOW
TO MEDIUM CHANCES (30-50%) OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AS LATEST ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES SUPPORT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO BE OVERHEAD. A FEW NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE FROM THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST
MODEL GUIDANCES. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR NO FLOODING OR
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE FAVORED
CONDITIONS OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND FORECAST MODEL TRENDS. BUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT SO ANY PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WOULD BE FOR LIGHTNING. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS WELL.
CURRENT KENX RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT REFLECTIVITY OVER
THE REGION FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR EAST. DRIZZLE TO ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST COULD REACH THE
GROUND AT ALL OF THE SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL ABOUT
23Z THIS EVENING. THIS IS SHOWN IN A PROB30. BROKEN AND OVERCAST
LOW STRATIFORM CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO FEW LOW LEVEL CUMULUS AND
THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PREDOMINANT AFTER ABOUT 15Z TOMORROW.
WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON HOLD FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ABOUT 10-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20 KT
ESPECIALLY AT KPSF. WINDS THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND DECREASE
TO 5-10 KT AFTER SUNSET AND THEN 5 KT OR LESS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. TOMORROW AFTER SUNRISE WINDS QUICKLY PICK BACK UP FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST NEAR 10 KT WITH GUSTS AGAIN UP TO 20 KT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...53
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