177
FXUS61 KALY 282340
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
740 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
2) MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THEN BREEZY CONDITIONS
ON SATURDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
3) UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH
LOW CHANCES FOR NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
BASED ON LATEST ENSEMBLE AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCES AS
HIGHS RANGE IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S. FOR SATURDAY, A CHILLY
MORNING IS TO START THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW 50S AND 60S, 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE UPPER 60S AND
70S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FOR FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ENSEMBLE FORECAST
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WHERE THE CENTER OF
THE LOW WILL BE. AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES JUST TO OUR WEST
OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND, WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL
HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO VERY EARLY SATURDAY. AT THIS
FORECAST PERIOD, RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT RANGING
BETWEEN 0.01 AND 0.2 INCHES, WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS OF 0.2
INCHES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOWEST TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECASTED FOR THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.
NEVERTHELESS, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR NO FLOODING
CONCERNS AS THE RISK IS VERY LOW DUE TO LIGHT RAINFALL NATURE
AND HOW DRY AND WARM WE HAVE BEEN THE LAST TWO DAYS ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR DRIER CONDITIONS
TO RETURN ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. HOWEVER, OVERCAST SKIES COULD BE IN STORE AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST.
ONE NEW FORECAST NOTE FROM YESTERDAY IS WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS
RANGING BETWEEN 20 AND 35 MPH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM HEADS EASTWARD OUT TO SEA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS (>45MPH), BUT NEVERTHELESS
WILL BE BREEZY SATURDAY MORNING IN STORE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SUNDAY STARTS OUT DRY IN THE MORNING, WITH LOW CHANCES (LESS THAN
30%) RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON AS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. DAILY LOW
TO MEDIUM CHANCES (30-50%) OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AS LATEST ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES SUPPORT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO BE OVERHEAD. A FEW NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE FROM THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST
MODEL GUIDANCES. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR NO FLOODING OR
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE FAVORED
CONDITIONS OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND FORECAST MODEL TRENDS. BUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT SO ANY PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WOULD BE FOR LIGHTNING. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/SAT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
NOVA SCOTIA SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT EARLY ON, BUT THEN AN INCREASE OF MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/FRI. SOME LINGERING
STRATOCUMULUS MAY PERSIST FOR KPSF IN THE 3.5 KFT AGL. ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
AN INCREASE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TIMED WITH THE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING, AS PROB30 GROUPS WERE USED FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF BETWEEN
19Z-23Z/FRI. SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO HIGH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY
OCCUR FOR KGFL/KPSF WITH THE SHOWERS.
THE WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10 KT OR
LESS EARLY TONIGHT, AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM
AFTER MIDNIGHT AT 4 KT OR LESS. THE WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 8-12 KT IN THE LATE MORNING, AND FURTHER
STRENGTHEN FROM THE WEST AT 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 KT
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS AT KALB IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12/05
AVIATION...15
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