249
FXUS61 KALY 291738
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
138 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WINDS/WIND GUSTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30-40 MPH AT TIMES.
HAVE ALSO LOWERED SAT MAX TEMPS AND SUN AM MIN TEMPS FROM
01Z/NBM. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH 30-40
MPH AT TIMES. STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, THEN AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, WITH SOME
FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT
SATURDAY NIGHT.
3) UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH
LOW CHANCES FOR NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY BEFORE TRANSLATING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STRONG WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED AROUND THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THIS FEATURE, AS 850 WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50+
KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON, AND 30-45 KT THROUGH SATURDAY. BUFKIT
FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT, STRONGEST FOR
AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER AND WITHIN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY REGION. STRONGEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL
BE WITHIN INITIAL RAIN SHOWERS AS STRONG EVAPORATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIALLY ALLOWS THE STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT TO REACH THE
SURFACE.
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS TONIGHT, HOWEVER AS
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
GRADUALLY DECREASING IN MAGNITUDE. WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED, STRONGEST WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING
SATURDAY MORNING WHERE 24-HOUR NBM PROBS FOR MAX WIND GUSTS >35
MPH ENDING 8 AM SUNDAY ARE 30-70%.
AS STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, FORCING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH,
WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE, MORE FREQUENT SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN VT, THE NORTHERN TACONICS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT, BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET,
SOME WET SNOW COULD ALSO OCCUR, WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME OF THE SUMMITS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A FEW PASSING SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP
INTO THE 40S FOR MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT, AND MAY REMAIN IN THE
40S/LOWER 50S THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY BEFORE EVENTUALLY WARMING
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, AS WINDS AND
CLOUDS DECREASE, TEMPS COULD DROP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT. IN THESE
AREAS, NBM 24-HOUR PROBS FOR MIN TEMPS < 37F ENDING 8 AM SUNDAY
ARE 20-40%, SUGGESTING SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING
EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
SHALLOW INSTABILITY FOR A FEW EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, ANY STORMS SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR AS OF 1:30 PM EDT
AT ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AT GFL/PSF AND POSSIBLY ALB, BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY OPERATIONAL IMPACT TO VSBY/CIGS. SHOWERS
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS EVENING, AGAIN WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
GFL/ALB/PSF. THESE SHOWERS COULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR VSBYS, AND HAVE
USED TEMPO GROUPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. CIGS REMAIN LOW-END VFR AT
ALB/GFL/POU BEHIND THESE SHOWERS INITIALLY, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO MVFR AT PSF. CIGS EVENTUALLY DROP TO MVFR AT ALB/GFL 7-10Z,
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TO MID
MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE WHETHER OR NOT CIGS DROP TO MVFR AT POU OR
REMAIN VFR. SHOWERS TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING TOMORROW AT ALB/GFL/POU
WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND AT PSF THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS ONCE SHOWERS END TOMORROW MORNING.
W/NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS WINDS BACK TO
THE W/SW WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS. ONCE SHOWERS END, WINDS VEER
TO THE NW AT AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. THEN, LATE
TONIGHT/VERY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, WINDS SWITCH TO THE N/NE BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND STRENGTHEN TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24/05
AVIATION...35
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