790
FXUS61 KALY 291913
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
313 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FOR HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT, LOWERED TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT
FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES. INCLUDED MENTION OF SNOW/RAIN MIX FOR
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AS TEMPERATURES
BELOW OR NEAR FREEZING ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
WITH LOW CHANCES FOR NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH
BRINGING WIDESPREAD MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO
VERY EARLY SATURDAY. AT THIS FORECAST PERIOD, RAINFALL AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT RANGING BETWEEN 0.01 AND 0.2 INCHES, WITH
THE HIGHER TOTALS UP TO 0.5 INCHES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
ADDITIONALLY FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT, RAIN CAN MIX WITH SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO BELOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM
AND WITH THE MIXING OF RAIN, IF ANY SNOW DOES OCCUR IT WON'T BE
ACCUMULATING ON SURFACES. LOWEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECASTED FOR THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.
NEVERTHELESS, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR NO FLOODING
CONCERNS AS THE RISK IS VERY LOW DUE TO THE LIGHT RAINFALL
NATURE. BY MID-SATURDAY MORNING, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE FOR DRIER CONDITIONS TO RETURN ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
CONTINUING THE MESSAGING FROM YESTERDAY, WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS
RANGING BETWEEN 20 AND 35 MPH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM HEADS EASTWARD OUT TO SEA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS (>45MPH), BUT NEVERTHELESS
WILL BE A BREEZY SATURDAY MORNING IN STORE ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
INTO TOMORROW FOR A CHILLY MORNING TO START THE WEEKEND WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE IN
THE LOW 50S AND 60S, 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END
OF MAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 2... SUNDAY STARTS OUT DRY IN THE MORNING AND
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD. AREAS OF FROST
COULD DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND IN A FEW PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS FOR SUNDAY MORNING, BUT COVERAGE DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS
FORECAST TIME. LOW CHANCES (LESS THAN 30%) RETURNING IN THE
EVENING AS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES
(30-50%) OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS
LATEST ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES SUPPORT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO BE OVERHEAD. A FEW NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR NO FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE FAVORED CONDITIONS OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AND FORECAST MODEL TRENDS. BUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT SO ANY
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON WOULD BE FOR
LIGHTNING. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR AS OF 1:30 PM EDT
AT ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AT GFL/PSF AND POSSIBLY ALB, BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY OPERATIONAL IMPACT TO VSBY/CIGS. SHOWERS
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS EVENING, AGAIN WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
GFL/ALB/PSF. THESE SHOWERS COULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR VSBYS, AND HAVE
USED TEMPO GROUPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. CIGS REMAIN LOW-END VFR AT
ALB/GFL/POU BEHIND THESE SHOWERS INITIALLY, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO MVFR AT PSF. CIGS EVENTUALLY DROP TO MVFR AT ALB/GFL 7-10Z,
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TO MID
MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE WHETHER OR NOT CIGS DROP TO MVFR AT POU OR
REMAIN VFR. SHOWERS TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING TOMORROW AT ALB/GFL/POU
WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND AT PSF THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS ONCE SHOWERS END TOMORROW MORNING.
W/NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS WINDS BACK TO
THE W/SW WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS. ONCE SHOWERS END, WINDS VEER
TO THE NW AT AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. THEN, LATE
TONIGHT/VERY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, WINDS SWITCH TO THE N/NE BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND STRENGTHEN TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...35
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