273
FXUS61 KALY 310524
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
124 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WITH CLEARING EXPECTED AND DECREASING WIND GUSTS, ADJUSTED MIN
TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT.
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY THANKS TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IN ADDITION, DAYTIME TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS THANKS TO THE
LOWER HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FROST
OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS.
2) WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD, THERE WILL BE
DAILY CHANCES FOR PASSING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION,
ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE, A 1003 MB
SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. THIS STORM
SYSTEM HAVE BEEN ALLOW FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST, WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN FINALLY ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH THE ACTIVITY NOW
MAINLY CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO
ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, WITH CLEARING FINALLY REACHING THE
CAPITAL REGION. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND MOST AREAS WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TOWARDS THIS
EVENING.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NYS MESONET AND ASOS SHOWING GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH TODAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, THE DECREASING
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AS WELL. MOST AREAS WILL
BE SEEING WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO CALM BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AND THIS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN VERY COOL FOR TODAY THANKS TO THE CLOUDS
AND COLD POOL ALOFT WITH DAYTIME READINGS ONLY IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S. SOME HIGH TERRAIN AREAS HAVE BEEN STUCK IN THE 40S AS WELL.
ONCE SUNSET OCCURS, THE DECREASING BREEZE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S, ALTHOUGH SOME MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. SOME PATCHY FROST COULD
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS,
ALTHOUGH THIS WILL MAINLY OCCUR WITHIN THE WILDERNESS AREAS, AS
POPULATED AREAS MAY JUST MILD ENOUGH TO AVOID FROST. AS A
RESULT, WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FROST ADVISORIES, BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTICEABLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US. THERE WILL BE SOME
REINFORCING DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
(SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY). AS A RESULT,
LOW UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. TEMPS ON TUESDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY MILDER COMPARED TO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.
IN ADDITION, THERE SOME A FEW CHANCE FOR LIGHT AND SPOTTY
PRECIP, MOSTLY DURING DIURNAL HEATING. THE FIRST CHANCE WILL BE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE
SUNDAY MAY START OUT FAIRLY CLEAR, CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. ANY PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT AND BRIEF AND THE
BEST CHANCE WILL LIKELY BE FOR SOUTHERN VT. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME LIMITED
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY (MAINLY UNDER 500 J/KG), BUT NO STRONG
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES, LOW TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AND LOW DEWPOINTS. IN ADDITION, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WON'T BE AN ISSUE DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND BRIEF
NATURE OF THE PRECIP AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
TUESDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN,
ANY PRECIP LOOKS LIGHT AND SPOTTY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE AND LIGHT OVERALL AMOUNTS. NOT ALL AREAS WILL SEE A
SHOWER, BUT THOSE THAT DO WILL SEE A BRIEF SHOT OF RAIN. STILL
CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF RUMBLE OF THUNDER EITHER, BUT ANY THUNDER
LOOKS FAIRLY ISOLATED. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH INTERVALS OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS SOME
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MON, VFR CONDITIONS AT KALB AND KPOU EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, PATCHY GROUND FOG
WILL LEAD TO INTERMITTENT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF
THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z/SUN. FOR THIS AFTERNOON, SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE GRADUALLY
EXPANDING SOUTH AND EAST WITH DECREASING COVERAGE THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS,
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN SHOWERS.
SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM NW TO SE AFTER 03Z/MON, HOWEVER AREAS
WHICH RECEIVED PRIOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAY HAVE PATCHY GROUND
FOG AND INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP TOWARD AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z/MON, WITH KGFL AND KPSF BEING THE MORE
LIKELY TAF SITES WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 8-12 KT BY LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS
WILL THEN DECREASE TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER, AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...24
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