114
FXUS61 KALY 311028
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
628 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY.
2) DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE, A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE COLD
POOL ALOFT, WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE EACH DAY (CAPE VALUES
LESS THAN 500 J/KG) WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED NON- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE TODAY WITH DECREASING COVERAGE
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR TODAY, SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
GREATEST FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 AND OCCUR MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS POCKETS OF MORE MODERATE RAIN COULD OCCUR. WHILE
MOST LOCATIONS WILL PICK UP 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN OR LESS, SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS COULD RECEIVE 0.50 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY MORE WHERE
SHOWERS ARE MORE PERSISTENT AND HEAVIER. QPF AMOUNTS WITHIN ANY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK
TO BE LIGHTER (MOSTLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES). TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND MONDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY. OUTSIDE OF SOME LOCALIZED
LIGHTNING STRIKES, NO WIDESPREAD WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE OMEGA BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD EACH DAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH
THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS WITH SOME UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL NOT BE TOO HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY
REACHING THE 50S, SO HEAT RELATED IMPACTS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS TIME. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WHEN THE NEXT
UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN
AT SOME POINT BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z MON, ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD LIFT BY
13Z/SUN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS AFTERNOON, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE GRADUALLY EXPANDING
SOUTH AND EAST WITH DECREASING COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF ANY SHOWERS, BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN SHOWERS. SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM NW TO SE AFTER 03Z/MON,
HOWEVER AREAS WHICH RECEIVED PRIOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAY HAVE
PATCHY GROUND FOG AND INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP TOWARD
AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z/MON, WITH KGFL AND KPSF BEING THE MORE
LIKELY TAF SITES WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 8-12 KT BY LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS
WILL THEN DECREASE TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER, AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...24
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