330
FXUS61 KALY 010606
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TUESDAY CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY, MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
UPWARD EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE, ONE
MORE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND WEAK,
SHALLOW INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 300 J/KG),
SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND
TODAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY AS WELL AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL AID IN SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT IN THESE AREAS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AND GENERALLY UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN ANY SHOWER BUT OVERALL
COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
THE OMEGA BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TOMORROW THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILD
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN THE
COMFORTABLE RANGE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE WITH RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY
IN THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE, BUT MOST ARE INDICATING AT LEAST
SOME INCREASED CHANCES AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/MONDAY...MIXED FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE OUT TO THE SOUTH RESULTING IN PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MIST/FOG TO FORM WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR FOG AND LOWER STRATUS AT KGFL AND KPSF FROM
ABOUT 06Z TO 10Z EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR MIST IS ALSO LIKELY AT
KALB AND KPOU UNTIL ABOUT 11Z/12Z WITH CEILINGS IN THE 1500 FT
TO 2000 FT AGL RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER 12Z
ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS AS DAYTIME SUN BURNS OFF ANY LINGERING
FOG. FEW AND SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CUMULUS WILL PASS THROUGH TODAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR BETWEEN 02Z- 04Z ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. CURRENT WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT 5 KT OR LESS
AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING 5-10 KT OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
BY SUNRISE. BY THIS EVENING AFTER 02Z WINDS DECREASE AND BECOME
CALM.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...53
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