817
FXUS61 KALY 011101
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TUESDAY CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY, MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
UPWARD EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE, ONE
MORE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND WEAK,
SHALLOW INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 300 J/KG),
SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND
TODAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY AS WELL AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL AID IN SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT IN THESE AREAS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AND GENERALLY UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN ANY SHOWER BUT OVERALL
COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
THE OMEGA BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TOMORROW THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILD
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN THE
COMFORTABLE RANGE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE WITH RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY
IN THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE, BUT MOST ARE INDICATING AT LEAST
SOME INCREASED CHANCES AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 12Z/MONDAY...MIXED FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD THIS MORNING AS CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS
FOG/MIST AND LOW STRATUS UNDER 400 FT AGL LINGERING. KPSF,
KGFL, AND KALB COULD EXPERIENCE LIFR/IFR OVER THE NEXT HOUR
BEFORE DAYTIME SUN QUICKLY BURNS OFF ANY REMAINING PESKY
FOG/MIST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 13Z ACROSS ALL THE
TERMINALS WITH ONLY FEW AND SCATTERED CUMULUS TYPE CLOUDS. SOME
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS COULD BE IN THE
VICINITY OF KPOU WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE AT KPSF THIS EVENING
FROM ABOUT 23Z TO 01Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF CLEARING BETWEEN 00Z-04Z ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
CURRENT WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT 5 KT OR LESS AND VARIABLE
BEFORE BECOMING 5-10 KT OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BY LATE
MORNING. BY THIS EVENING AFTER 02Z WINDS DECREASE AND BECOME
CALM.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...53
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