261
FXUS61 KALY 011750
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY, MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
UPWARD EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTERNOON UPDATE: PATCHY FOG CAN DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AS SKIES
CLEAR TONIGHT AND MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE CAN BE PRESENT FROM
TODAY'S RAIN SHOWERS FOR TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT, PATCHY FROST CAN DEVELOP UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES. ONE
FORECAST NOTE THAT WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR ARE THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE
HUDSON VALLEY. WITH FORECASTED DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
AND LOW 60S, HUMIDITY WON'T BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN HOW WARM
IT WILL FEEL ON FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF CATSKILL HAVE 50-75% CHANCES OF REACHING
ABOVE 90 DEGREES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE
FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAS NOT CHANGED FOR TODAY
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. READ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: AN OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CONUS WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND UPPER
TROUGHS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH IN PLACE, ONE MORE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT
AND WEAK, SHALLOW INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN
300 J/KG), SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
BE AROUND TODAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR FOR AREAS EAST
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AS WELL AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL AID IN SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IN THESE AREAS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT AND GENERALLY UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN ANY SHOWER BUT
OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S TO
LOW 70S.
THE OMEGA BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TOMORROW THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILD
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN THE
COMFORTABLE RANGE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE WITH RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY
IN THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE, BUT MOST ARE INDICATING AT LEAST
SOME INCREASED CHANCES AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH
WILL BRING SCT -SHRA TO AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
THIS AFTERNOON/ KPSF EXPECTED TO BE THE ONLY TAF SITE WITH -SHRA
AND POSSIBLE BRIEF ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, VFR
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DISSIPATING AFTER DARK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION AND
ASSOCIATED IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF.
CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPING IS FAIRLY HIGH, ALTHOUGH THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY
11Z TUESDAY WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND EARLY SUNRISE THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT,
BECOMING NEAR CALM TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33/05
AVIATION...07
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