063
FXUS61 KALY 021738
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
138 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A COOL MORNING WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG, LARGE SCALE
RIDGING UNDER THE OMEGA BLOCK THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS FINALLY STARTS TO BUILD EASTWARD TODAY. THIS WILL
HELP KICK OUT THE LINGERING TROUGHING TO ITS EAST THAT HAS LED
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST THAT PAST FEW
DAYS. NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE
TO THE INCOMING RIDGE TODAY, ALLOWING A WARMER AIR MASS TO
FINALLY SPILL EASTWARD. THUS, TODAY WILL START A WARMING TREND
AND A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLY TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY JUNE.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT THE WEAK TROUGHING AND LEFTOVER
COOL POOL ALOFT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 TODAY CAN RESULT IN A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HILL TOWNS OR HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS, WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST GIVEN LITTLE, IF ANY,
IMPACT. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BUILDS OVERHEAD TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY AS THE OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND
BREAK DOWN, ALLOWING SUNNY SKIES TO PERSIST AND WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT TO ADVECT A WARM AIR MASS EASTWARD. THERE IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND (OUTSIDE OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS) TOMORROW THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH EVEN A 40 TO 70% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH OR
EXCEED 90 DEGREES ON FRIDAY (HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY). AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION, HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN CHECK THROUGH FRIDAY AND LIKELY NOT
RESULT IN UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS OR HEAT CONCERNS.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE OMEGA BLOCK BREAKS DOWN
COMPLETELY BY THE WEEKEND WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY
SUPPORTING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN
FACT, THERE IS A 20 TO 40% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF RAIN BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE 18Z TAF CYCLE. DEEP MIXING
TODAY HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO BECOME A BIT BREEZY, PRIMARILY OUT OF
THE NORTH, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS RANGING FROM ABOUT 8-12 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT TO CALM BEFORE INCREASING
TO A LIGHT BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...12
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