475
FXUS61 KALY 021841
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
241 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURE WARMING TREND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
2) CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THIS WEEK WITH
SUMMERTIME-LIKE HEAT RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THE
LATEST FORECAST DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S,
HUMIDITY (MUGGINESS) WILL NOT BE A FACTOR INTO HOW HOT IT WILL
ACTUALLY FEEL OUTSIDE AS IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURE. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WHILE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS STAY IN THE
70S. HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO STAY COOL, HYDRATED, AND WHEN
WORKING OUTDOORS TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS FOR THIS WEEKEND AS ENSEMBLE
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SATURDAY
MORNING TO START OFF DRY. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO OUR
NORTH, WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRACK AS THE LATEST FORECAST
SUPPORTS THE LOW MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING MEDIUM
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. FOR SUNDAY, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR 50 TO 75%
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST. BASED ON FORECAST
TRENDS, WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DEVELOP. HOWEVER, THE EXACT MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION OF DEVELOPMENT OF
THEM CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. NEVERTHELESS,
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE 18Z TAF CYCLE. DEEP MIXING
TODAY HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO BECOME A BIT BREEZY, PRIMARILY OUT OF
THE NORTH, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS RANGING FROM ABOUT 8-12 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT TO CALM BEFORE INCREASING
TO A LIGHT BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...12
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