726
FXUS61 KALY 022313
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
713 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURE WARMING TREND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
2) CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THIS WEEK WITH
SUMMERTIME-LIKE HEAT RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THE
LATEST FORECAST DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S,
HUMIDITY (MUGGINESS) WILL NOT BE A FACTOR INTO HOW HOT IT WILL
ACTUALLY FEEL OUTSIDE AS IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURE. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WHILE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS STAY IN THE
70S. HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO STAY COOL, HYDRATED, AND WHEN
WORKING OUTDOORS TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS FOR THIS WEEKEND AS ENSEMBLE
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SATURDAY
MORNING TO START OFF DRY. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO OUR
NORTH, WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRACK AS THE LATEST FORECAST
SUPPORTS THE LOW MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING MEDIUM
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. FOR SUNDAY, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR 50 TO 75%
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST. BASED ON FORECAST
TRENDS, WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DEVELOP. HOWEVER, THE EXACT MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION OF DEVELOPMENT OF
THEM CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. NEVERTHELESS,
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
FORCE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH THE
EXPECTATION FOR SUCH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE 00Z
TAF PERIOD. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT,
THERE WILL BE NO THREAT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WE REMAIN VERY DRY
IN THE LOW LEVELS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DECREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE DAYLIGHT, THOUGH A LIGHT,
NORTHERLY BREEZE REMAINS. TOMORROW, WINDS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL
OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...12
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