117
FXUS61 KALY 040832
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, IMPACTFUL HEAT IS NOT EXPECTED AS HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN
LOW.
2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE
FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS DURING ANY THUNDERSTORM. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE RIDGE FROM THE INCOMING OMEGA BLOCK WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TODAY BEFORE STARTING TO FLATTEN OUT TOMORROW. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN OUR STRETCH OF DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING WARMER EACH DAY AS 850HPA ISOTHERMS RISE TOWARDS +14C
TO +17C. WHILE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S TO
EVEN LOW 90S, THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
LEVELS LOW AND THUS MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT IMPACTS.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST CHANCE (50 TO 80%) FOR TEMPERATURES
TO REACH OR EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS AS WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT ADVECT IN THE CORE OF THE WARM AIR MASS WITH ONLY CIRRUS
CLOUDS SPILLING OVERTOP THE WEAKENING RIDGE. WHILE THE WARM AIR
MASS LINGERS INTO SATURDAY, THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES
TO REACH OR EXCEED 90 DEGREES SHIFTS TO AREAS MAINLY FROM I-90
SOUTHWARD GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HUMIDITY LEVELS RISE SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS MAKING IT FEEL MUGGIER,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY WHERE THERE IS A LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE MID-90S;
HOWEVER, HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS STILL APPEAR UNLIKELY WITH THE
LATEST HEATRISK ONLY SHOWING WIDESPREAD MODERATE (2 OF 4)
LEVELS. TYPICALLY, MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) RAISES
CONCERNS FOR HEAT IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
OUR RIDGE FLATTENS OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HEIGHT FALLS PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ADVECTING INCREASED
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND THUS LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY. LATEST PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS LESS THAN A 40% CHANCE FOR SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES TO REACH OR EXCEED 1000 J/KG. THE HIGHEST
VALUES REMAIN SOUTH OF I-90 WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WHERE THERE IS THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR ENOUGH INSOLATION TO HELP GENERATE INSTABILITY.
DESPITE OVERALL LOW INSTABILITY, STREGTHENING FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHER DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES RANGING 25-35KTS.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP, THE HIGHER SHEAR
VALUES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION
BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS REMAINS LOW GIVEN
INSTABILITY UNCERTAINTY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CLASSIC
"TALL, SKINNY CAPE" SIGNATURE AND WITH PWATS RISING NEARLY 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS GREATER
THAN 10KFT, EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES SHOULD SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS DURING ANY STORM. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ARRIVES BUT INITIAL
SHOWERS/STORMS LOOK TO REACH AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF I-90 FIRST
EITHER SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLIDING SOUTH
AND EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS FOR SCATTERED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE PARENT TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, A STRENGTHENING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FROM CANADA QUICKLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY, KICKING THE PARENT TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH AND
SUPPORTING A DRYING AND COOLING TREND. SEASONABLY COOL AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS LAST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A WARMING
TREND RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AS OF 1:50 AM EDT, WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGFL. A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY
FOG/MIST COULD DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE (07Z-10Z)
AT KGFL LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR. ANY FOG HERE
DISSIPATES BY 10Z-12Z WITH MORNING SUN. CALM WINDS TONIGHT BEGIN TO
INCREASE INTO THE MORNING BECOMING 5-10 KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST/WEST
BY THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KT ESPECIALLY AT
KALB. WINDS THEN TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...53
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page