147
FXUS61 KALY 050549
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT IMPACTS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY FOR THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
2) LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK (5-14%) FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
STRONG WINDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF JUNE. FOR THE REST OF TODAY,
VALLEY LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
AND LOW 50S TODAY AND TOMORROW, HUMIDITY (MUGGINESS) WILL NOT BE
A FACTOR INTO HOW HOT IT WILL ACTUALLY FEEL OUTSIDE AS IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE. FOR TOMORROW, CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO BE THE
WARMEST LOCATION WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-90S. BUT WITH THE
HELP OF THE LOW DEWPOINTS, FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKE
THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE IN THE LOW TO MID-90S. HOWEVER,
FOR SATURDAY AS AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES, DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHERE
HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD REACH INTO THE MID-90S BEFORE INCREASING
CLOUDS ARRIVE. THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY COULD HAVE HEAT IMPACTS DUE
TO THE FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-90S, BUT WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS IF ANY HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.
NEVERTHELESS, IT'LL BE WARM OUTSIDE THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK. HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO STAY COOL, HYDRATED, AND WHEN
WORKING OUTDOORS TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST REGION BRINGING MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON FORECAST TRENDS, WE COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DEVELOP. AT THIS
FORECAST TIME, THERE IS A LOW RISK BETWEEN 5 AND 14% FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EXACT MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION
OF DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE WITH
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE. NEVERTHELESS,
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS GOING TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG
WINDS WITH ANY DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY EVENING. WITH THE
RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS FOR STORMS TO MOVE
THROUGH QUICKLY, WE'RE NOT CONCERNED ABOUT HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS
SUCH AS FLASH FLOODING. MINOR PONDING OF WATER IN TYPICAL
LOCATIONS COULD OCCUR. BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT DIMINISHES.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING A LOW CHANCE OF BRIEF FOG/MIST AT KGFL EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH A LOW T/TD SPREAD THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VSBYS IS
MENTIONED IN A TEMPO. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CALM WINDS BECOME 5-10 KT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH AT KGFL AND WEST/NORTHWEST KALB, KPOU, AND KPSF
BY NOON. WINDS THEN TAPER OFF WITH SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NUMEROUS SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.MA...NONE.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...53
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