362
FXUS61 KALY 050733
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
333 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY
HAS EXPANDED INTO AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90 WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS.
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS ON SATURDAY HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING LOWER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THUS, THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTED HAS
LOWERED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW,
THE CHANCE FOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS HAS TRENDED LOWER ACROSS
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
2) THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) AND SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2
OF 5) FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
EVENING. PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM ANY SEVERE STORM ARE DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
3) INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST TODAY BUT
STARTS TO WEAKEN AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
AND GREAT LAKES. WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE WILL ADVECT A WARMER AIR MASS INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH
850HPA ISOTHERMS REACHING +14C TO +16C AND ALLOW MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPILL OVERHEAD. WHILE THERE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT RATHER DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN VALLEY AREAS
WITH EVEN AROUND 90 IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY, LOW HUMIDITY WILL
ONCE AGAIN LIMIT HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS. THE INCREASING CIRRUS
CANOPY HAS ALSO LOWERED THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED
90 DEGREES WITH THE POTENTIAL LIMITED TO JUST A 10 TO 30%
CHANCE IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY. THE LATEST HEATRISK FOR TODAY
REMAINS MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) MEANING POPULATIONS SENSITIVE
TO THE HEAT (I.E THOSE WITHOUT COOLING) MAY BE AFFECTED.
REGARDLESS, IT IS STILL RECOMMENDED TO AVOID UNNECESSARY
STRENUOUS ACTIVITY AND TO REMAIN HYDRATED. CLOUDS INCREASE AND
LOWER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. WHILE
MOISTURE AND THEREFORE HUMIDITY WILL TREND HIGHER, CLOUDS AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO TODAY. THERE IS
STILL A LOW CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH 90 DEGREES IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY AS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PLUS THE HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT
FEEL MORE LIKE THE LOW-90S BUT THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA (HEAT INDEX AT OR ABOVE 95F) HAS LOWERED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS
OUR TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE HEIGHT FALLS AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE REACHES AREAS MAINLY
NORTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWING A 30 TO
60% CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH EVEN
A 50 TO 75% CHANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90 REMAIN DRIER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WHERE THERE IS LESS
THAN A 40% CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER, THERE IS
GREATER THAN A 75% CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL REGIONWIDE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OVERALL FORCING IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG BETWEEN GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND A
WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AT THE SFC SO NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.
IN FACT, SHOWERS SHOULD BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH BREAKS OF
DRY TIME.
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIMITED INSOLATION WILL
YIELD WEAK INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES MAINLY NEAR OR UNDER 1000 J/KG. WITH PWATS
>1.5" AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A TALL, SKINNY CAPE
SIGNATURE, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
DESPITE MEAGER INSTABILITY, A CONVEYOR BELT OF FASTER,
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SPREADING EASTWARD WILL SUPPORT STRONG
ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES 25-35KTS CAPABLE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. WITH SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED MAINLY PARALLEL OR
SLIGHTLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH, EXPECTING A
LINEAR STORM MODE OR STORM CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY HAZARD FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) IN ITS DAY 2
OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90
WHERE THERE SHOULD BE A MORE FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED AREAS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TOUGH AND COLD POOL TRACK OVERHEAD BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS UNLIKELY GIVEN LOWER INSTABILITY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WHILE TEMPERATURES TURN COOLER SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE AND ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HEAT DOME DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL
CONUS (850HPA ISOTHERMS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL PER THE NAEFS) FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS RIDGING
BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS THAT THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR
MASS ADVECTS INTO THE NORTHEAST. LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS GREATER THAN A 75% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 90
DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR IMPACTFUL HEAT.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING A LOW CHANCE OF BRIEF FOG/MIST AT KGFL EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH A LOW T/TD SPREAD THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VSBYS IS
MENTIONED IN A TEMPO. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CALM WINDS BECOME 5-10 KT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH AT KGFL AND WEST/NORTHWEST KALB, KPOU, AND KPSF
BY NOON. WINDS THEN TAPER OFF WITH SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NUMEROUS SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.MA...NONE.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...53
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page