091
FXUS61 KALY 052323
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
723 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS INCREASED FOR
TOMORROW, GIVEN THE SLOWER TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIKEWISE, FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IN THE GREATER COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
HAS ALSO INCREASED. AGREEMENT IN THESE THOUGHTS HAS LED THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF
5) FARTHER INTO THE MOHAWK AND UPPER- HUDSON VALLEYS. A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS REMAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
(5-44% WITHIN 25 MILES OF ANY GIVEN POINT) LARGE HAIL UP TO 1"
IN DIAMETER (5-14% WITHIN 25 MILES OF ANY GIVEN POINT).
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL UP TO 1" IN DIAMETER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW EVENING.
2) ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WILL BRING AT LEAST MINOR TO MODERATE RISKS OF HEAT-
RELATED IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TONIGHT, A POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHOSE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD AND DEEPEN AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE STRENGTHENING OF THIS VERTICALLY STACKING TROUGH WILL
TRIGGER A DEEPENING OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW AT THE SURFACE, ALSO
TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. AN INITIAL SURGE OF
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PRECEDING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL INITIATE
SOME EARLY SHOWERS TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE DEEP ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING SCOURS OUT PRECIPITATION COMPLETELY FOR THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS.
DURING THESE "DRY" HOURS, BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE AMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO INCREASE MODERATELY AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND 80S TO
POTENTIALLY LOW 90S IN VALLEY AREAS. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE WE WILL
BE MIXING RATHER DEEPLY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON,
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS AND
SUBSEQUENTLY INSTABILITY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
MOIST WE WILL GET TOMORROW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AND HOW DEEP WE WILL ACTUALLY MIX AT TIMES. BUT GIVEN
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE QUICK
SHOWERS THAT WILL MOISTEN SOILS FOR SOME, THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S DEWPOINTS CERTAINLY SEEM REASONABLE.
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
OVERHEAD AS IT SETTLES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS LOW AND TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW EVENING WILL ULTIMATELY
DRIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT,
WHICH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE INTERSECTION OF THE COMBINED FORCING FROM THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE ALOFT WITH THE FAIRLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO DRIVE AN INCREASED
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTING ROUGHLY 45 DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE
INCOMING SURFACE TROUGH AT ROUGHLY 25 TO 35 KT WILL SUPPORT A
DISCRETE STORM MODE WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RANGING
FROM ABOUT 6.5 TO 7 C/KM. DCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 800-1000
J/KG WITH INVERTED V PROFILES PROVIDE CONFIDENCE THAT DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER, LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN DECENT CLOUD-LAYER
SHEAR AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) TO INCLUDE
ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE UPPER-HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS WHILE
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS REMAIN IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF
5).
THE TIMING OF GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW FALLS
BETWEEN ABOUT 2 PM THROUGH 9 PM BEFORE THE THREAT SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASES COURTESY OF THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AND WHILE
THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS GIVEN OUR VERY DRY PERIOD OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, HIGH PWATS ARE INDICATIVE OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITHIN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW. CAUTION IS
ADVISED FOR ALL THOSE ATTENDING OUTDOOR EVENTS OR ACTIVITIES.
KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND GO INDOORS WHEN YOU HEAR THUNDER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WE WILL STILL LARGELY BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE 70S AND 80S BOTH DAYS. AND AS
WE GET FURTHER INTO NEXT WEEK, ANOMALOUSLY HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS (UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS 1-2 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST NAEFS) WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE 80S
TO 90S ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME, THE IMPACTS FOR HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESS LOOK TO PRIMARILY BE MINOR TO MODERATE SUNDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, THOUGH SOME MAJOR IMPACTS ARE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY BE
INTRODUCED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS GOING FORWARD AND
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MESSAGING AND PRODUCTS AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/SUN...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLOUDS IN PLACE TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION AT
KGFL. CLOUD BASES WILL LIKELY LOWER TO AROUND 5 KFT DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR KGFL
BETWEEN 15-18Z/SAT; OTHERWISE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD IMPACT
KGFL/KALB PRIOR TO 00Z/SUN. A PROB30 WAS INTRODUCED TO
HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLE REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS IN ANY THUNDERSTORM BUT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER TAF UPDATES.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY HOLD OFF AT KPOU/KPSF UNTIL AFTER
00Z/SUN.
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
ON SATURDAY AT 10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT. LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS COULD OCCUR DURING ANY THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NUMEROUS SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...33
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